Business As Usual

"None of the political players trust one another and they see politics really as a zero-sum game. They are prisoners of the past so they see their opponents not just as political rivals who can push them out of office but as people who might kill them or imprison them. Acrimony in the political realm and the violence in the cities create a destabilizing feedback loop, whereby the bloodshed sows mistrust in the halls of power and politicians are inclined to settle scores with their proxies in the streets." Ned Parker, Council on Foreign Relations

And there is Iraq, peaceful and settled back as a member in good standing of the Arab League, scheduled finally to host Arab leaders from 21 aligned countries in a two-day regional summit. With the final withdrawal of American troops, after an unexpectedly extended stay, Iraq is free to be itself. The country is prepared to spend $500-million, and to have 100,000 troops and police monitor Baghdad to ensure that all proceeds smoothly for that summit.

Just incidentally, of course, there is the little matter of a growing insurrection, kind of, more or less. "Security efforts will be escalated to counteract terrorist groups' attacks and to fill loopholes used by them to infiltrate security, whether in Baghdad or other provinces", warns the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. His plans will not go awry; he will be acknowledged as Saddam Hussein's inheritor. (Shia, of course, in the ascendancy. Friends with Iran, too.)

Not as a bloody dictator, of course, but rather as a duly elected leader of his nation, democratically elected; just ask the departed Americans. Of course there is the little matter of irritations here and there in the body politic; policy disagreements, sectarian rivalries, personality clashes. Some of those aggravating details were dispatched agreeably, however, on the departure of U.S. troops when Mr. Maliki ordered tanks and the Baghdad Brigade (in the command of his son) to surround the homes of those irritating Sunni politicians.

And of course ordering the arrest of the country's Vice-President, a Sunni, Tariq al-Hashimi. For cause, needless to say, on charges of terrorism. Mr. al-Hashimi is now giving Mr. Maliki the finger from the Kurdish territory of northern Iraq. Warning his nemesis that the country will be pushed to the brink and perhaps beyond, into civil war.

Other Sunnis, of a more determined bent, The Islamic State of Iraq, an al-Qaeda affiliate, have done their own warning, in setting off 27 simultaneous-timed bombs to dispatch 51 Iraqis to Paradise, and 250 to hospital. "Death is approaching you when you least expect it", they warn the Shia government, on their Internet website. The barbarity of a booby-trapped car set to explode, with a decapitated body in the driver's seat, head in his lap, balances modern technology.

"If the government continues to pursue power struggles, engage in sectarian and identity politics, and ignore the public's grievances, ordinary Iraqis may once again turn to Islamist groups. Extremist groups like al-Qaeda in Iraq feed off the grievances of ordinary Iraqis. By alienating Sunnis, failing to help young Iraqis find sustainable employment and ignoring deepening civilian frustration, the Iraqi government may unwittingly be helping them gain recruits." Irene Sargsyan, analyst, Brookings Institution

Very little of social or political or ideological substance seems to change in the Middle East; it's a constant Merry-go-Round, that is not, actually, so very merry.