Political, Military, Economic, Social Fragility

Massive amounts of foreign aid have gone into supporting a new and improved Afghanistan. But the patchwork of improvements and initiatives haven't really been validated; the institution building has been partial because although Western NGOs and government-sponsored officers have done their bit, once all vestiges of the international community and NATO soldiers pull out Afghanistan will have to be responsible for itself.

It isn't able to generate enough GDP to fund the programs that have been initiated; it is highly dependent financially on the auspices of international funding. Internationally-financed programs delivering basic and fundamental services to the population through institution-building will falter and collapse with the withdrawal of the international presence.

Even now tribal and Taliban 'justice' in the provinces have reverted to aeons-old traditions. Sharia law compelling the death sentence for apostates, stoning for adulterers, public lashings and other forms of medieval punishment are being resurrected because the reach of the country's Ministryof Justice doesn't extend beyond the urban centres.

The schools that were erected and proudly proclaimed to be teaching huge numbers of children, particularly girls, are not all operational. Some have been destroyed, many have no female students and others have no students at all, let alone teachers. Because of the always-doubtful security situation it is not always possible to travel to areas to see whether initiatives have been successful.

Afghanistan has become so highly dependent for its economic well-being that with the departure of all NATO and ISAF troops and the withdrawal of the war-funding that allowed segments of the Afghan economy to flourish, it stands the risk of succumbing to a depression that will become endemic. Its gross domestic product is reliant 97% on foreign civilian and military spending.

Provincial governors who have had funding funnelled to them directly for the purpose of benefiting their populations have used the funding to acquire vehicles and accoutrements of public office, with little seeming to be used to improve the lives of the people they're accountable for.

Individuals working for NGOs as foreign administrative staff have accustomed themselves to living in palatial surroundings.

Foreign contractors - according to Hamid Karzai, who has complained unceasingly of his preference for international aid to be directed to him and his government directly instead of through foreign NGOs - have taken much of the aid, and are themselves responsible for much of the corruption that has plagued his administration.

Afghans fortunate enough to land jobs at any level of competence or lack of same with foreign organizations earn salaries that bear no resemblance whatever to those of their peers working within Afghanistan's own traditional employment areas. All of this is ready for collapse with the withdrawal of the foreign presence.

The irony is that even while appreciating to a degree the assistance given it by the foreign presence, even taking into account the huge irritation factor of hosting foreign troops, the government and the people of Afghanistan would prefer to have foreigners leave them to themselves. This is a country that has known nothing but the influx of foreign occupiers throughout its history.

The foreign aid that Afghanistan has become accustomed to has often been misdirected. The vast amounts of funding have created an even more corrupt society. It has vastly distorted the labour and goods marketplace of the country. It has ensured that the Government of Afghanistan appears incapable and dependent, and corruptible, a message not lost on the population.

Instead of securing the country's economic future, it has made it more complex and infinitely more fragile. So that the fragility of the security situation with the country dependent on the loyalties and professionalism of its growing national police and military, through ongoing training by NATO forces is just as fraught with the danger of collapse as is the country's economy.

In the final analysis, what has been accomplished at great cost of life and treasury may simply have been a temporary aberration in a country with a long heritage of failure and social collapse and the curse of foreign interventions.