Danger Writ Large

"I have said before that Iran's nuclear train has no brake and no reverse gear ... We will continue our path." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

When Mohammed ElBaradei was director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency he seemed rather forgivingly relaxed about Iran's recalcitrance at permitting the IAEA entry to Iran's various nuclear installations. The discovery of the existence of nuclear installations whose presence was never revealed to the IAEA was a mere distraction, it appeared. Iran received a slap on the wrist for non-conformance with rules and regulations.

It was the international community, led by the United States, that resulted in the United Nations slapping sanctions on Iran for its lack of forthcomingness, and its arrogant insistence that it was within its rights to define itself as a nuclear nation, despite being a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation agreement. Such matters are mere irrelevancies to Iran, in any event.

Which has always insisted that it had no intention of creating military nuclear warheads; its intention was purely peaceful and civilian-oriented. To become reliant on nuclear-derived energy, and to become capable of producing its own medical nuclear isotopes. Its far more sinister agenda was well enough known, and allied with its threats to annihilate Israel, one-and-one make two.

"It is unclear what actions the U.S. or Israel could take (short of militarily occupying Iran) that could now prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons. The reality is that both the U.S. and Israel have failed to prevent Iran from gaining the ability to produce nuclear weapons whenever Iran wishes to do so. It is time to recognize this policy failure and decide what to do next, based on a realistic assessment of Iran's uranium enrichment efforts." U.S. weapons expert Gregory Jones: Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre.

This conclusion, released in a study, bolsters the calculations of the IAEA's new director, Yukiya Amano, who has faulted Iran for its lack of co-operation with international nuclear inspectors. Mr. Amano agreed that some aspects of the country's nuclear activities point directly to a weapons program. And with that in mind, he has demanded of Tehran that it open its sites for inspection.

The U.S. Pentagon-linked RAND Corp. warns that there are certain obstacles in the way of the need to persuade Iran to drop its nuclear weapons program:

"Iran today has largely acquired the materials, equipment and technology needed to develop a nuclear weapon. International efforts to control exports and interdict trade can now only hope to slow Iran's progress and possibly deny it the specific technologies needed; for example, for nuclear warhead miniaturization and for mating a warhead on a missile."

Now that there is firm confirmation from a variety of reliable sources that lines up with Israel's concerns and contentions, what course will the United Nations' General Assembly take, with Russia and China continuing to sit as wary backers of Iran's dangerous determination? Little has been done in the past other than resorting to talk of sanctions that have not succeeded in disrupting Iran's nuclear proceedings.

Washington currently seems frozen in arrested uncertainty of how to proceed. This administration wants to be everyone's friend and no one's certain ally. The study produced by Mr. Jones claims Iran to have 5,184 very busy centrifuges in operation, with a stockpile of partially enriched uranium: "The process could be well along or even completed before it was discovered."

My goodness: surprise, surprise!