The Best Laid Plans of Iranian Succession : Confusion and Chaos

"The martyrdom of the Supreme Leader at the  hands of Israel and the criminal America was a great disaster for our country."

"With the power of God, we will continue the path of the Imam, the path of the dear leader, and the path of all those who seek justice in the world with power." 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian

 

"Irrespective of what the guidelines say and what the politics may have been, it was always going to be improvisational."

"Under the circumstances of an existential conflict, the succession process is going to be very much dictated by the context of the moment."

Suzanne Maloney, vice-president, Brookings Institution

 

"The structure of the Islamic Revolution has been designed in such a way that after the martyrdom of any commander, at any rank or level, qualified and capable individuals immediately replace them."

Fars News Agency

 

"The succession process is not key in the short term because they're going to try and fight on."

"Firing off missiles does not require a supreme leader." 

Alex Vatanka, Iran analyst, Middle East Institute

Plumes of smoke from two simultaneous strikes rise over Tehran on Monday. (Mohsen Ganji/The Associated Press)

 

The first step in a process of succession in the aftermath of confirmation  of the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resulting from an Israeli aerial attack on his compound containing the Ayatollah's offices, was announced. That a commission of three experts as called for in Iran's constitution, would meet to select the next supreme leader. Unfortunately, while the experts and others around them were in close consultation the building they were in was bombed to smithereens.

 

Evidently, before that happened, the decision was promulgated. Although Ayatollah Khamenei was said to have spurned the idea of  succession, even though rumour had it that he was grooming his oldest son to succeed him, the panel of experts had decided on elevating that son to the now-empty position of Grand Ayatollah. That, despite that the son did not have the required scholarship credentials to obtain that role. 

 

Iran International reports the Assembly of Experts has elected Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his father’s successor.

 

According to President Pezeshkian, an interim leadership council was struck to begin the process of overseeing the country locked in war with the  attack of its government institutions by the combined military forces of the United States and Israel. Moreover, it was latterly reported that the building housing the deliberating council was bombed: "Following the decapitation of 88 Members of the Islamic Supreme Council, which was set to choose the Ayatollah regime's next "Supreme Leader"; Mossad announced: "It doesn't matter who is chosen today; his fate has been decreed. Only the Iranian nation will choose their future leader."

 

Following the U.S.-Israeli attack that began on Saturday, Iran retaliated by firing waves of missiles and drones at Israel and targeted U.S. allies in the region. Here, boys watch as a tall smoke plume billows following an explosion in the Fujairah industrial zone in the U.A.E. (Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images)

 

With the elimination of many contenders and in the current regime instability various rivals and factions are certain to emerge, each claiming their right to assume wartime power in the face of questionable support from the country'[s military establishment. The solution to which may be a decision to retain the temporary council, but then the fact is the temporary council is now rather unavailable, given that blast that destroyed the building they were meeting in. 

 

Even though Mojtaba Khamenei was widely expected to be favoured as his father's successor, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resisted the transfer of the supreme position along hereditary lines. Such a move would smack too greatly of the ruling system of the Pahlavi dynasty, when the Shah was replaced by the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. 

 

In Iran the supreme leader is a high-placed religious figure considered to be a representative of God, while also being the head of state. During the 37 years that Ali Khamenei served, he expanded his power and the scope of his rule over the civilian government which itself was elected under a quasi-democratic rule. As such the Grand Ayatollah had the power to wield final decision-making on all manner of regime initiatives, even as he also consulted.

 

What the Iranian Shiite regime -- or what is left of it -- has failed to take into account is its future presence in the Middle East where it has succeeded through its violently hostile actions toward its Sunni Arab neighbours by sending endless streams of missiles and deadly drones into their territory, attacking both oil extraction sites and civilian infrastructure and in so doing inciting deadly enmity from those same neighbours, is the future consequences. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others will never now countenance a continuation of the Islamic Republic. 

 

The U.S. and Israel launched a new wave of attacks on Iran on Tuesday, as the conflict entered its fourth day. Here, plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran early Tuesday. (Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images)

 

 

The New-Old Iranian At-War Governing Council

"We had prepared for such moments and have plans in place for all scenarios, even for the time after the martyrdom of revered Imam Khamenei."

"You'll see that after the leadership council is formed, the power and integrity of officials, defensive forces and the people will be beyond imagination."

Mohammad Bagher Galibaf, parliamentary speaker, Iran 

 

"We are ready in our country."

"We are not looking for war, and we won't start the war. But if they force it on us, we will respond."

Ali Larijani, 67, head, Iranian Supreme National Security Council 

In this photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leads an Eid al-Fitr prayer marking the end of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 31, 2025. Photo by Uncredited /AP

 

Well, 'they' did proceed to 'force it' on the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States and Israel in a tandem of determination, after failed nuclear talks and in the wake of massive, prolonged popular protests by Iranians fed up with the economic plight they found themselves in as a result of sanctions imposed on Iran for its intransigence over international demands that it forego its nuclear programs, where the regime's brutal crackdown on protesters led to thousands killed, tens of thousands injured and arrested, the decision was finally made to attack the regime's nuclear development sites, its IRGC weapons depots, ballistic missile launchers and leading government figures.

 

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, as are many of the leading military and security figures of the Islamic Republic. Before his death, the Grand Ayatollah left instructions with trusted aids how they must proceed in a continuation of the Islamic Republic after his death. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan 2026 saw the aerial invasion of Iran by American and Israeli fighter jets targeting the regime's infrastructure, its military, its government figures, after a massive buildup of American military assets at sea and in the air. A joint, well-planned agreement between Israel, whom Iran has repeatedly threatened to destroy and the U.S., whose military assets Iran has repeatedly targeted with its proxy terrorists.

 

Provisional Leadership Council, Sky News

 

 Facing the threat of strikes and dealing with nationwide protests in January, Ayatollah Khamenei assigned Ali Larijani, Iran's foremost national security official, to take the reins of government. He chose Mr. Larijani, and not the current president of the country, Masoud Pezeshkian to be tasked. President Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon turned politician and considered a moderate, would then report directly to Mr. Larijani. Larijani is a veteran politician, currently head of the Supreme National Security Council, formerly commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps.

 

Mr. Larijani had been tasked with crushing the January protests throughout the country that demanded the ouster of the regime and the end of Islamic rule. The lethal force that was unleashed under his command was in fact a reflection of the government itself, prepared to kill as many protesters as was deemed necessary to convince Iranians that the government was unmoved by the passion of their protests other than to continue the regime's resolve to crush dissent.

 

It has been Mr. Larijani who has been front and central in liaising with Russia, Qatar and Oman while supervising the nuclear negotiations underway with Washington. He has been at the helm of planning Iran's response to the expected strike by the United States in view of the American forces being amassed in the region. Alongside Larijani, a handful of other close political and military associates of Ayatollah Khamenei were tasked to ensure that the Islamic Republic would survive any assassination attempts on the regime's leadership including that of the Ayatollah himself.

 

Four layers of succession were assigned by Ayatollah Khamenei for each of the military command and government roles of critical importance to the longevity of the regime. All those named to leadership roles were themselves in turn to name up to an additional four replacements with responsibilities delegated to a circle of confidants for decision-making, in the event that communications were disrupted or the death of the Ayatollah. All of the country's armed forces were placed on the highest state of alert in preparation for fierce resistance. 

 

Sky News

 

A three-person temporary leadership council has been formed to govern the country and temporarily assume the duties of supreme leader, in line with Islamic Republic law. Mr. Larijani tops the list to manage the country, followed by Brigadier General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Guards commander and current speaker of Parliament, designated as the de facto deputy to Khamenei, to command the armed forces during conflict. President Pezeshkian has been sidelined.

 

None of the men in this tight little circle of command and control would be considered with any favour by the angry people of Iran, given their accusations of financial corruption, and complicity in violations of human rights, inclusive of the recent slaughter of thousands of unarmed protesters over a three-day period in early January. 

 

Penalizing Abraham Accord Signees

"During the past two years, Iran and Israel have traded missile and air strikes three times, and by now, war between them is old news. War between Iran and the Gulf Arab states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, however, is something new. According to reports, Iran fired missiles at all of them this morning. This video appears to show an attack on Juffair, the area of Bahrain that hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet. Similar attacks were reported in the other countries, all of which host American bases or other strategic interests."

"All these countries, with the possible exception of the U.A.E., have been at various times torn about whether to treat Iran like a bad neighbor who must be tolerated, or a bad neighbor whose house needs to be burned down with the neighbor in it."

"These countries once wondered whether Iran could be appeased and contained. Now they do not."

Graeme Wood, The Atlantic 

 

"Everyone is very scared [as the situation continues to deteriorate]."

"There is footage of missile interceptions all over the city."

"I am packing a suitcase just in case … not that we can leave, because airspace is closed."

"It is the thing we have all been frightened about happening, and now it has."

Dubai resident  

Dubai turns into a ghost town as Iranian strikes rattle the city.  Nearly empty highways are seen in Dubai on Sunday.   Caroline Faraj/CNN

 

Iran, as the only non-Arab Muslim state in the Middle East, has long sought to reassert itself in the image of ancient Persia where the Shi'ite theocracy recalls a time when Persia was once the ruling hegemon in the Middle East during the Achaemenid Empire (c. 550–330 BC) when its royal families oversaw a vast influential territory. Today, Iranians still celebrate the empire of Cyrus The Great, a warrior and statesman. In Israel he is remembered as the great king who was instrumental in freeing Israelites from their captive state and allowed them to return to Israel to rebuild the Temple of Solomon destroyed by the Assyrians.

 

The majority Sunni Muslim states in the Middle East have always lived uneasily alongside Iran, since 1979's Islamic Revolution that brought Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power in Iran with the exile of the former Shah Pahlavi. The revolution that turned Iranians from a proud free people to a people shackled by strictly enforced Sharia law, taking Iranians socially back to the Medieval era, curtailing their liberties as the regime began to export its version of Islam and formed, trained and armed non-state terrorist militias to do its bidding on the international stage and within the Middle East.

 

Tehran had its ambitions to wrest Mecca from the control of the Saudis, a point of extreme tension between the two countries, both competing as well to be recognized as the ultimate power in the Middle East. Most of the Sunni states had amicable trade linked to oil extraction with the West and particularly the United States, as did the former Shah of Iran. Under the theocratic regime that Tehran ruled, relations from the onset of the revolution were antagonistic to the United States, the Iranian mullahs characterizing the U.S. as the 'great Satan' and Israel which they regarded as a U.S. appendage, the 'little Satan'. Its intention was to destroy them both.

 

Hit-and-run attacks against both accomplished through the medium of Iran's proxy terrorist groups became the regime's mode of conduct toward both Israel and the United States. But it was not until it became apparent that Iran was diligently working on a devoted nuclear program -- all the while promising it would destroy Israel -- that attention was fixed on its actions. In the failure of Western nations to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions alongside the IRGC's development of ever further-reaching and more powerful ballistic missiles amidst threats they could eventually reach the U.S. seaboard, tensions continued to grow.

Explosions from the interception of an Iranian projectile are seen in the sky over Dubai on March 1, 2026. (Photo by Giuseppe CACACE / AFP via Getty Images)

 

On the last day of February 2026 a second joint action shared by the United States and Israel targeted Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile sites with the intention of completely destroying them, following the mistaken belief that their earlier June 2025 attacks had accomplished that goal. In the wake of mass demonstrations of Iranians against their theocratic leadership stifling life in the country for ordinary people, and the resulting regime response that killed thousands, wounded many more and imprisoned tens of thousands, Israel and the United States, following a massive buildup of military might at sea and in the air, attacked Iran.  

"The regime has not capitulated in the least. At least not yet. They are fighting back and so what we’re watching is this sort of test of wills."

"[The] Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed the Kingdom’s full solidarity with the countries concerned and its firm support for them, stating that it would mobilize all its capabilities to assist them in any measures they undertake."

"[The UAE emphasized that the country’s security is] indivisible [from its Gulf neighbors] and that any infringement on the sovereignty of any state constitutes a direct threat to the security and stability of the entire region." 

"[It’s interesting to see the countries] banding together with the United States." 

"The Emiratis and the Saudis are now speaking the same language. They have been at odds with one another over the last several weeks, they are issuing statements of support for one another as Iranian missiles and drones are getting shot across the region."

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies  

The Islamic Republican Guard Corps at the direction of Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, laid plans to attack their Sunni Arab neighbours whom they accused of collaborating with the United States. Accordingly, even with the death of Khamenei, along with that of the head of the IRGC and many other military leaders, the plan was advanced into kinetic action, with hundreds of missiles and drones attacking not only Israel, but U.S. military assets in countries like Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.

 

By the third day of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, four people were killed and 100 wounded in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.  Iran has burnt all its bridges. Arab states that would have no hand in attacking the Islamic Republic despite their fears of its aggressive intentions now turn their eye in a well-earned jaundiced direction toward the real and immediate threat Iran now poses to their own security and that of their civilian populations. A situation that could very well end up with a coalition of Arab nations moving their own militaries against Iran. 

 

And  ultimately, Iranians would be freed from the theocratic restraints of a government leadership that destroyed too many Iranian lives to be permitted to live on without penalty itself.

 

Smoke rises after Iran carried out a missile strike on the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. (Reuters)

"For the first time in history, all the GCC states were targeted by the same actor within 24 hours. Their long-standing nightmare scenario has happened."

"Although in case of a US attack to Iran, this was an expected action from Tehran, but the scope has shocked both the Gulf political elite and public."

"[By hitting civilian infrastructure, whether intentionally or not, in the Gulf Cooperation Council capitals], Iran has crossed a dangerous line. The aim may have been to raise tensions in the Gulf to pressure the US, but this calculus may also backfire. It risks pushing the GCC states closer to the US camp in this war."

Sinem Cengiz, researcher, Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Center/non-resident fellow at Gulf International Forum