Another Surprise Kyiv Decision to Mount a New Offensive in Kursk

"In the Kursk region the Russians are deeply concerned."

"They were attacked on multiple fronts, [Sunday] which came as a surprise to them."

"The Defense Forces are actively working. The situation in the Kursk region seems to be causing significant concern among the Russians, as they were unexpectedly attacked on several fronts."

Andriy Kovalenko, senior official, Ukraine’s national security and defence council

Ukrainian servicemen operate an armored military vehicle on a road near the border with Russia, in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2024. (Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images)

 

"Ukraine’s military has been characteristically tight-lipped about current developments, as experience shows this is key to success."

"This leaves the field open for Russian propaganda and disinformation to spread their version of events."

"[The true picture], will only become clear later."

Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program, London

Ukraine's forces lost about half the territory it seized in Russia's Kursk region after its surprise offensive of earlier last year. The rest may be lost in a matter of months should aggressive Russian counteroffensive moves continue at the rate it has latterly, possibly depriving Kyiv of leverage in ceasefire talks. Grappling with a lack of manpower and future uncertainty with the supply of weaponry from the U.S. with the looming new Trump administration, Ukraine struggles against Russian advances in its east.

In Kursk, Ukrainian troops are currently facing off against some 12,000 North Korean troops sent in by agreement between Russia and North Korea to reinforce the Russian military. Moscow has concentrated an effort to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk. And the U.S. projection is that Kyiv's forces may be able to continue to hold the land until spring, before being forced to retreat, or risk being encircled.

Ukrainian officials hoped to use territory seized in Kursk as a bargaining chip in future ceasefire negotiations. Despite Donald Trump claiming he plans to bring the war to a rapid end, given the complexity of Ukrainian and Russian red lines it may take months for the sides to agree to a ceasefire. 

Russia has been gaining an upper hand currently on the battlefield, giving it an incentive to stall talks as it claws back as much terrain as it can from Ukraine before negotiations begin with a potential truce freeze on the front lines. Ukrainian forces have managed to hold on to  land in Kursk for longer than initial predictions supposed, partially aided by the US. agreement allowing Kyiv to fire long-range missiles into Russia.

It was the shock value of the Ukrainian counter-invasion and the goal of further reducing Russian forces that really led Ukraine's military to invade Russia at Kursk. The incursion has imposed a heavy cost on both Russian and North Korean forces. Friday a briefing to reporters by John Kirby, speaking for the U.S. National Security Council, added that the North Koreans supporting Russia are conducting "massed, dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk", the result of which is over 1,000 killed or wounded in the past week alone.

The Kursk incursion demonstrated that Russia's international border is not fully protected and could be breached as well at other points, according to George Baros, leading the Russia and Geospatial Intelligence teams at the Institute for the Study of War. "In going after Kursk, the Ukrainians demonstrated the war was not hopelessly stalemated but is indeed quite dynamic", he said, indicating to allies it remained worth supporting to further erode Russian military and economic resources.

Russia is suffering significant losses -- averaging roughly 1,200 personnel per day, according to U.S. assessments, a level that cannot be indefinitely sustained without a new mobilization which Putin would prefer not to repeat, recalling the unpopularity of the September 2022 call-up of 300,000 reservists.

 

Now, once again, on Sunday, Ukraine launched a new surprise offensive in the Russian Kursk region, following months of pressure ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, in an effort to seize new territory in the same area where Kyiv's forces first swept across the border last August. Since that time, Moscow has retaken a significant amount of its land in Kursk, yet has struggled to fully expel the Ukrainian troops, even while deploying thousands of North Korean soldiers.  

 

A Ukrainian tank crew member taking a break from the intense fighting last month near the key city of Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region.  Roman Pilipey / AFP - Getty Images