Flying Passenger Jets Into Aerial War Zones

"The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing."

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev

"Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system."

"This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do."

"It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided."

Osprey CE Andrew Nicholson

 

"It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments."

"Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally."

Yan Matveyev, independent Russian military expert 

 

A reminder of January 2020 when, flying out of Tehran, a Ukrainian passenger jet, Ukraine International Airlines Jet 752, was shot down by an IRGC flight command post, in anticipation of 

a retaliatory missile from an American base in Iraq following an Iranian missile aimed at the base that wounded a number of American personnel. And that was in retaliation for an American strike that killed top Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps al Quds Commander Qasem Soleimani.

And before that, a Malaysian passenger jet was shot down flying over Ukraine airspace when it was shot down by ethnic Russian Ukrainian rebels who had been supplied by Russia with a Buk missile. The separatists supported by Russia in east Ukraine, denied responsibility, but it was clear they were responsible, reacting to a belief that they were shooting down a Ukrainian war jet. In both instances all aboard both passenger jets were instantly killed.

Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190, en route from the capital of Azerbaijan to Grozny in the North Caucasus Wednesday, diverted by bad weather, crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, flying east across the Caspian Sea. Some 3 kilometres from Aktau, online circulating cellphone footage show the aircraft in a steep descent, then smashing to the ground, a fireball lifting from the explosion that ensued.

Rosaviatsia, the Russian civil aviation authority, was quick to say that preliminary data indicate the pilots diverted to Atau when an emergency situation emerged following a bird strike. Experts, on the other hand, charge that holes in the plane's tail section likely indicate that the plane could have been under fire from Russian air defence systems, reacting to a perceived Ukrainian drone attack.

OPSGroup, which monitors the world's airspace and airports for potential risks, concluded their analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane almost certainly indicate the plane was hit by a surface-to-air missile (SAM). "Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99 percent bracket", stated Mark Zee of OPSGroup.

Osprey Flight Solutions, based in the U.K., provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia int he wake of Western airlines having halted their flights during the war warned its clients of the likelihood of a Russian military shoot-down of the Azerbaijan plane. According to Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson, his company issued over 200 alerts respecting drone attacks and Russian air defence systems during the conflict.

"It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments", remarked independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev after noting images of the plane's trail reveal damage compatible with shrapnel from small surface-to-air missiles. Why the pilots decided to fly across the Caspian Sea rather than attempting a landing at a closer airport in Russia once the plane was hit, intrigues him.

An Azerbaijani news website questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport in view of an apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, Chechnya's Security Council head, mentioned air defences downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday. Why Russian authorities failed to permit the plane an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby once it was hit, puzzles Caliber.

Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a ‘tragic incident’ following the crash of an Azerbaijani airliner in Kazakhstan that killed 38 people. He stopped short of acknowledging that Moscow was responsible, but an official Kremlin statement issued on Saturday said that air defence systems were firing near Grozny Airport during the flight.  Still from video/CBC