Violating Syria's Sovereignty -- Allies? What Allies?

 

"Of course, this is a violation of Syria's sovereignty in this region."

"We urge Syria's authorities to reassert control and restore constitutional order as soon as possible."

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman 

 

"[Syria] will continue to defend its stability and territorial integrity."

"[Damascus is capable of beating back the advance] with the help of its allies."

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

"No one expected Aleppo to be taken, which means there were no real defensive lines within the city." "Once they got there it seems like it was all open."

"I think the regime didn’t expect such a quick move, the operation started just a few days ago." 

Jerome Drevon, International Crisis Group

 

"[The overwhelming number of fighters] and the multiplicity of battlefronts prompted our armed forces to carry out a redeployment operation aimed at strengthening the defence lines in order to absorb the attack, preserve the lives of civilians and soldiers, and prepare for a counterattack."

Syrian Military statement

HTS had shown little sign of attempting to reignite the Syrian conflict until this week  Getty Images

 

"Certainly some areas in the Aleppo countryside could be difficult for HTS and their allies to hold on to if they come under really withering air strikes or artillery fire. [Insurgent rule inside Aleppo itself could prove far more difficult for Assad and his allies to repel in the long term]."

"It’s not clear what kind of capabilities Damascus is now able to bring to bear and mobilize from elsewhere in Syria, also critically how much capacity Russia now has in Syria, given its current involvement in Ukraine which has diverted some of their forces to that front."

Sam Heller, analyst, Century Foundation

Aleppo, considered Syria's second-largest city, has been breached by Islamist insurgents. Two car bombs were blown up on Friday and insurgents were fighting with government forces on the western edge of the city, according to war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, who stated that the insurgents had seized control of Saraqeb, south of Aleppo, strategically located at the intersection of highways that link Aleppo with the Syrian capital Damascus and the coast.

As a result of missiles and gunfire, residents fled neighbourhoods on the city's edge. A shock offensive launched on Wednesday led the advance on Aleppo with thousands of fighters sweeping through towns and villages in the northwestern countryside. A region already reeling from the wars in Gaza and Lebanon with Israel, led uncertainty to the surprise attacks, atop the unresolved Syrian civil war that commenced in 2011.

Getty Images

 

 Thjere was no evidence of a significant pushback from either government forces or their allies; reports of government forces shedding their responsibilities in the face of advances, was reminiscent of the sweep of the Islamic State advances in Iraq and Syria when it was establishing its Caliphate, absorbing a third of each country, when its offensive campaign and its reputation for vicious ruthlessness entirely cowed the militaries in both countries who failed to directly counter those advances, leaving the way clear for the Islamists to take control of great swaths of government territory.

The offensive seemed planned to take advantage of the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and Iran, which backed the Syrian regime forces since 2015, now distracted in the need to defend themselves from Israeli Forces who were responding to the violent cross-border provocations by Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Which leaves only Russia to continue its backing of the Alawite Shiite Bashar regime against the Sunni insurgents. And Russia is fully occupied in Ukraine.

The very day the Syrian opposition factions made public an announcement of their offensive, a ceasefire in the two-month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. Additionally, Israel escalated its attacks against both Hezbollah and Iran-linked targets in Syria within the past few months. Syrian government attacks on opposition held areas presaged the attack on Aleppo. According to Turkish security officials, Syrian opposition groups (that Turkey supports) launched a long-planned "limited" offensive on Aleppo. When Syrian government forces began their retreat, the offensive expanded.

The Kremlin made it clear that the attack is considered by them to represent an encroachment on Syria's sovereignty. A Friday statement by Syria's Armed Forces claimed they had been clashing in the countryside around Aleppo and Idlib with the insurgents, destroying drones and heavy weaponry, vowing to repel the attack, accusing the insurgents of spreading false information regarding their advances. 

Opposition factions led by Salafist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are engaging in the most intense fighting in northwestern Syria since 2020, when government forces seized areas occupied and controlled by opposition forces. Dozens of fighters from both sides were killed in the battles that began on Wednesday. Hezbollah, "the main force" in the government's control of Aleppo, is unfortunately for Bashar al-Assad, out of commission.

 

A Syrian opposition fighter takes a picture of a fellow rebel stepping on a portrait of Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo. Photograph: Ghaith Alsayed/AP