All According to Plan

"Putin likely thought it was a shrewd move to enlist convicted criminals for his war effort. The cynical calculus was probably rooted in the belief that these individuals, already marginalized by society, could be sacrificed without sparking public outrage. As a result, tens of thousands of convicts, the exact number of whom is unknown, were pardoned by Putin and sent to the front lines. Many of those former prisoners returned home emboldened by their new status as “heroes” and began terrorizing their families and communities."

"In 2022, the number of domestic murders and attempted murders increased for the first time in 20 years, by 4%, the independent Russian news site Cherta reported. In 2023, the number of violent crimes committed by war veterans increased 13 times. Over just two years, Russians who had participated in the war in Ukraine accumulated more than 2,500 criminal convictions. In 2023 alone, over 190 criminal cases were opened against members of Wagner, the private military company once led by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to the independent news outlet Verstka. Twenty of these cases involved murder or attempted murder."

Wilson Center

August 8, 2024: Vladimir Putin speaks with the governor of Kursk    Kremlin.ru

 

Ukrainian troops have now gained full control of the Russian town of Sudzha, the largest population centre to date to fall to Ukraine since it began its cross-border incursion over a week earlier. With a prewar population of some five thousand, Sudzha is a prize catch for Ukraine as the administrative centre for the border area of the Kursk region, larger than any of the small towns or village Ukrainian forces have overrun since August 6, when the surprise incursion was launched.

In Sudzha, a measuring station for Russian natural gas exists, that flows through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe, accounting for some three percent of Europe's imports. No disruption of gas flow was reported. According to President Zelenskyy's most recent address regularly updating his citizenry, a Ukrainian military command office is being established in Sudzha, which may include plans to remain long-term in the Kursk region.

The Kursk region has been left in a chaotic situation with the evacuation of over 120,000 civilians. A lot of people affected in Russia, of course, finally bringing home to the population that they are not immune from disruption in a war that their government launched. A far greater number of Ukrainians have been internally displaced, and millions have become refugees seeking haven from the conflict abroad. If Russia feels it is justified in occupying Ukraine, it is hardly surprising that Ukraine intends to give Russia a taste of its own punishment.

 

A Ukrainian armoured military vehicle travels near the Russian-Ukrainian border, Sumy region, Ukraine, Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

 

There is speculation among Russian military bloggers whether Ukrainian advances have been slowed by the reserves forwarded to the Kursk region, although whether the incursion might force Moscow to relocate troops from front-line positions in eastern Ukraine, to dispatch more to the Kursk area to defend Russian territory is also under debate. According to an anonymous US official, it seems that Russia has moved an insufficient number of armoured battalions or other combat power from the front-line in Ukraine to the Kursk region, and help will be required to shift more troops to repel Kyiv's forces.

The evacuation of the Glushkovo region, about 45 km northwest of Sudzha, is also underway. Ukrainian forces were gradually advancing toward the area. In Sumy, wounded soldiers described difficult operations in the Belgorod region to the south suggesting a larger scale to the offensive. The fighting in Belgorod, has been fierce. In Sumy, wounded soldiers described operations in the Belgorod region of an even larger scale to the offensive.

The troops in Belgorod appeared prepared for the arrival of their Ukrainian adversaries. Troops came under intense attack by artillery, drones and airstrikes almost immediately. The area had been fortified with antitank obstacles and heavily mined. The Ukraine military moved forward about six miles, seizing abandoned Russian troop positions. "All our group was injured the day we arrived", one soldier explained.

Situation in Kursk Oblast as of 11 August 2024. Map: ISW.