Never Underestimate An Existential Push-Back

"Right now, the momentum is clearly on Russia's side."

"[The overall battlefield situation is] much closer to a stalemate."

"[Even if Russia can punch a hole in the line] organizing a column that could advance deep behind Ukrainian lines is complicated [because of logistical and organizational demands that the military can't satisfy]."

"It's not a high-quality force. In a war of attrition, numbers count."

Charles Kupchan, senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, Washington 

"[Border region attacks will cause Russia to] start to realize that the war is slowly creeping inside of Russian territory."

"When will it be possible to conduct a negotiation process in the way that we can push them or get something from them?

"Only when the war is not going on according to their scenarios."

"I think we're heading toward some kind of sustained diplomatic effort [to end the war]."

Myhailo Podolyak, adviser, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 

A crossing point on the border with Russia a is seen, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the Russian border in Sumy region, Ukraine August 11, 2024. Photo by Viacheslav Ratynskyi/REUTERS

 

Clearly. the Kremlin's forces were stunned at the surprise incursion by the Ukraine army into Russia this week. Following close to 900 days of conflict, Ukraine's strategic goal in creating its largest cross-border push remains unclear, but it does serve to counter the unrelenting effort in recent months by Russian forces to get through Ukrainian defences at points along the 1,000-kilometre front line.

Russia has managed to achieve modest gains only in its offensive. What it has achieved thus far is notable losses of troops and armour. Yet slowly and steadily the Russian advances add up. Ukraine's also depleted army must continue to hold off its bigger, better-equipped enemy on the battlefield.
At the same time, during the summer months work on restoring the national power grid smashed by Russian missiles must be completed before the arrival of winter.

There is deadlock along the lengthy front line, leading Russia to make a concerted push particularly in the Donetsk region where its army exploits dry land to move armour, to use the tree lines for infantry cover and clear skies to enable the launching of powerful glide bombs to obliterate Ukrainian defences. An advance by Russian forces that is slow, yet relentless. The use of artillery, missiles and bombs to reduce villages to ruins denies Ukrainian defensive cover.

Despite Russian momentum, its army sustained over a thousand casualties daily in May and June, bearing down on Donetsk. Its advances "will likely slow further as as Russian forces advance into a line of larger and more urban settlements", after overrunning small Ukrainian settlements, stated the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. An expert at Ukraine's Center for Military and Political Research, Kostiantyn Mashovets, feels that Russia pushes hard since it "has reached the peak in building up its [military] forces and power".

 

The offensive into Russia has boosted morale on the Ukrainian side   Reuters

 

Ukraine's tactical calculations in adding a new twist by invading Kursk province across the Russian border has everyone guessing. Launched from the northeastern Sumy region, the incursion appears as a tactic in the opening of a new area of conflict on Russian soil. U.S. officials confirmed the Kursk incursion is a cross-border operation, where the use of U.S.-supplied weapons has their consent. Some analysts feel this could begin a concerted push to seize Kursk and a nearby nuclear power plant.

Both sides seek leverage in negotiations to achieve a peace agreement each could live with, although their positions remain distant, with Russian President Putin seeking capitulation from Ukraine and President Zelenskyy insisting Russian forces must leave his country. President Zelenskyy informed the July NATO summit that Ukraine cannot win the war until the U.S. scraps limits on the use of its weapons to permit it to attack targets within Russia.

Long-range Ukrainian drones operated by Ukraine's Security Service hit a military airfield in Russia's Lipetsk region, about 300 kilometres from the Ukraine border on Thursday night. An airfield serving as a base for fighter jets and helicopters and over 700 powerful glide bombs in storage. According to Russia's Defence Ministry, 75 Ukrainian drones were shot down that night, 19 over Lipetsk.

"[The incursion was designed] to put pressure on the aggressor Russia [and push] the war into the aggressor’s territory."

"[Thousands of strikes on Ukraine’s territory launched from Russia’s Kursk region deserved a fair response]."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

 

"It's obvious that the enemy will keep trying to destabilize the situation in the border zone to try to destabilize the domestic political situation in our country."

"[Russia’s main task is to] drive the enemy out of our territories and, together with the border service, to ensure reliable cover of the state border."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called Ukraine's move into Kursk a "major provocation"   Reuters