The Hands-Off Affair Between Putin and Prigozhin

"As for Prigozhin, he’s in St Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus"

"Where is Prigozhin this morning? Maybe he left for Moscow."

"[Vladimir Putin would not] wipe out [Prigozhin because the Russian president was not] malevolent and vindictive."

"[The plan is to discuss the future of Wagner during an upcoming meeting with Putin]. Will Wagner end up in Belarus or not, and in what quantity – we’ll figure this out in the near future."

Belarus President Aleksander Lukashenko

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin visited the FSB office in St. Petersburg Tuesday to pick up his weapons.  New York Post

 

The thuggish Wagner Group founder led a rebellion against  his old friend and supporter, freshly sending an alert to their world audience that all is not well in Moscow, and yet though Vladimir Putin publicly named Prigozhin's incipient coup for what it was, a betrayal that he had reason to suspect not only the warlord Prigozhin for, but the quietly active cooperation of some of his generals being involved. The Wagner convoy was voluntarily halted a mere several hours' ongoing march to Moscow.

Whether or how much of a success in destabilizing Putin's government and removing him from his position as its head, might have been achieved is anyone's guess, but this "stab in the back" obviously had the support of others in influential positions, not only the mercenary boss. Yet the obstreperous man who led his troops from Rostov-on-Don toward Moscow encountered no opposition from the Russian military. Wagner, in fact, shot down several Russian warplanes circling above his troops, as well as a helicopter.

Leaving the question, where were the generals commanding the army and the air force while the Wagner force steadily advanced on Moscow, unimpeded, and doubtless cheered on by many Muscovites given the popularity of the pugilistic clown so fond of grandstanding complaints and threats? Now, however, the leading question is why has Putin withdrawn his threats of holding Prigozhin to account?

And where, for that matter is Sergey Surovikin, the general who was placed in charge of liaison with Wagner, known as a close associate of Prigozhin? While Prigozhin, the principal fomenter of the infamous rebellion has been left free to disport himself as he wishes and to reclaim his goods and funds taken into custody by Russian police, General Surovikin's whereabouts are currently unknown, vanished into the thick air of conspiracy.

Vladimir Putin has no love for the presence of competitors, yet findings of reports from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs suggests that of Russia's 46 regions, 17 sided with Prigozhin, with just 22 regions supporting Putin; the remaining split in their loyalty. St.Petersburg, Putin's home city, had prepared to throw its support to the Wagner chief, although Moscow continued to back the president.

The mystery that is Russian politics continues to puzzle. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a threat to Vladimir Putin, was not arrested to stand trial on charges of treason, but was invited to return to St. Petersburg to claim his arsenal of weapons and his cached riches. Instead of leaving for Belarus, his private jet and the Wagner boss were seen traveling back and forth between Belarus and Moscow and St.Petersburg. Free to come, free to go, no prison for Prigozhin.

All charges were dropped against the businessman-turned-mercenary-chief. Despite that Russian authorities launched a criminal investigation into his private military group. Weapons and cash seized when police raided his offices have been returned to Prigozhin. His vehicle, a 4x4, was seen pulling up at a central St.Petersburg investigator's office where he and his aides were seen ferrying weapons to his vehicle. Earlier, local authorities returned ten billion rubles (US$110,619,500) to him.

A camp, assumed to be a newly placed base for Wagner fighters appeared at a disused military base in Belarus, but not a single mercenary has been seen to arrive at the base. The mystery deepens. What does the foul-mouthed clown possess to make him invulnerable to punishment for humiliating and betraying his former financier who used the Wagner group as a deniable vehicle for Russian interaction in foreign conflicts?