Whither Russia, Now?

Members of the Wagner group military company load their tank onto a truck on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023

"The most dangerous thing, as I understand it, is not what the situation was, but how it could develop and its consequences."

"I also realized there was a harsh decision taken - to destroy. I suggested Putin not to hurry. Let’s talk with Prigozhin, with his commanders."

"[Putin told me]: “Listen, Alex, it’s useless. [Prigozhin] doesn’t even pick up the phone, he doesn’t want to talk to anyone."

"[But I managed to get hold of Prigozhin and warned he would be] crushed like a bug [if Wagner troops continued their advance to the Russian capital]."

"We talked for the first round of 30 minutes in a swear language. Exclusively. There were ten times more swear words than normal vocabulary."

"Of course, he apologized in advance, and began to tell me everything using these obscene words."

"At five o’clock in the evening he called me and said: '…I accept all your conditions. But … What should I do? We stop - they will destroy us.' I say: 'They won’t. I guarantee you. I’ll take it upon myself''."

Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko 

As Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to explain the Wagner Group's march on Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a defiant address to the nation. Still from videos

There is that explanation for the sudden turn of events when the Wagner convoy had reached a two-hour March to reach Moscow before their boss, the mercurial Yevgeny Prigozhin suddenly called it all off, the nascent confrontation that promised to be ugly and bloody when the two men -- once close friends and allies -- each ordered their troops to bludgeon the other in a fiercely partisan argument of paranoid dimensions that would, either way it turned out, change the current trajectory of the Russian Federation.

There are some challenges to Aleksandr Lukashenko's self-laudatory descriptions of how he single-handedly persuaded both principals in the 'special military invasion' to surrender their immediate confrontation to the moderation of changing the trajectory of a dramatic showdown. News stories that speak instead of Prigozhin surrendering his mission to call the Russian Minister of Defence on the carpet and charge him with treason, holding his boss, Mr. Putin to the charges laid on him by the Wagner strongman, effectively discharging him from the Russian presidency.

That it was, after all, threats against Yevgeny Prigozhin's extended family, and the families of his commanders, available for lethal punishment should he insist on further destabilizing the Putin regime. It could, of course, have been both the intervention of Belarus's president, and the threats against the Wagner clan that turned the tide, but regardless of that stalemate, the damage to Vladimir Putin from the entire affair, his war-that-isn't-a-war against Ukraine, his intent of disembowelling the country died an instant death, along with his personal standing as 21st century czar of Russia, his dreams of a resurgent Soviet Union.

 

News emanating from Russia last weekend led to the impression that Russian warplanes flying over the Wagnerites advancing on the Russian capital were bombing the aspirational liberators. The Russian pilots of warplanes and helicopters overflying the mercenary force were doing no such thing; other than the motions of taking to the skies, they simply flew, failing to comply with any supposed orders to shoot the oncoming convoy to a standstill. Those in the convoy, on the other hand, seemed to have no compunction in shooting down the Russian warplanes and helicopters. 

Thirteen Russian aircrew of seven warplanes shot down died, while it seems the  helicopter crews were able to walk away from their wrecked aircraft. There was video footage shared on social media showing the wreckage of a Russian Air Force Ilyushin-22 in rural southern Russia. Moscow Calling, a Russian Telegram channel, affirmed that all ten of its crew were killed. Three of those aboard a Ka-52 gunship also died.

Wagner mercenaries in Rostov-on-Don on Saturday   Reuters

 

Prigozhin had taunted the Russian military pointing to his march as a "master class" on how the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine should have been carried out. The Russian military was mocked for its failure to protect the country in the face of security breaches, allowing the march of 780 kilometres by Wagner without resistance, able to block all military units on its passage toward Moscow. But then, on earlier occasions when Ukraine managed to evade and breach Russian security, when armed groups crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia to harass border towns, and to send drones over Moscow, that point was already taken.

With the cease-and-desist order now in place, with Wagner troops ordered back to base and to their former places at the frontline in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is assumed to be intending to assimilate the Wagner militia into the regular Russian military after taking out its former leaders. In an 11-minute statement Prigozhin said he had acted "to prevent the destruction of the Wagner private military company", acting in response to an attack on a Wagner camp by the Russian military he claimed killed thirty of his fighters.

According to some Russian media sources, Wagner offices in several Russian cities were reopened on Monday, with the company resuming its ongoing enlisting of recruits. Alex Younger, former head of Britain's MI6 intelligence agency stated that "everyone comes out of this weaker." Prigozhin "didn't have a plan, he didn't have enough people" to succeed. On the other hand, Putin appeared indecisive, first vowing he would crush the rebels, then resorting to striking a deal.

"Putin likely hesitated because he doubted that his forces would follow those kinds of orders [to immediately close ranks and confront the oncoming Wagner convoy a mere 200 km from Moscow] and he could look impotent as a result."

"He was right. Regular troops appear to have melted away before the advancing Wagner forces. There was no resistance even in Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Military District."

"Apart from a few helicopter gunships, shot down by Wagner, no one attacked the “muzykanty,” or “musicians,” as the Wagnerites like to call themselves."

"Where were the bomber and jet fighter pilots, who could have pummeled the advancing columns from on high as they marched from the Ukrainian border to Rostov-on-Don?"

"In fact, things turned out even more dire than that for Putin. The residents of Rostov were worse than silent. Instead of deploring the Wagner takeover, they appeared in videos welcoming Prigozhin’s “musicians.” Instead of waving portraits of Putin and Russian flags, they brought the insurgents water and candy."

Leon Aron, Politico Magazine

The light on the floors of the building in central Moscow, Russia, form the letter Z, which has become a symbol of the Russian military, on Sunday, June 25, 2023. (Dmitri Lovetsky/The Associated Press)