And As The Tide Turns in Ukraine and Russia

"Events are developing according to the scenario we talked about all last year. The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive finally destabilized the Russian elites, intensifying the internal split that arose after the defeat in Ukraine."

"Today we are actually witnessing the beginning of a civil war. At the same time, Ukraine continues to move along its own path. To the borders of 1991."

Mykhailo Podolyak, key adviser to President Zelenskyy

A Ukrainian soldier fires a field gun toward Russian positions in the Donetsk region on Friday. Many Ukrainians expressed hope that the Wagner rebellion would weaken Russian troops on the battlefield. Photograph: Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty

"[Other nations should be expected to] give appropriate signals and exert pressure [on Moscow]."

"Our principle is simple: The World must know what the occupier is preparing. Everyone who knows must act."

"The world has enough power to prevent any radiation incidents, let alone a radiation catastrophe."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

 

"[Russia urged the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure Ukraine does not shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, saying it was otherwise operating safely]."

"We expect concrete steps from the IAEA aimed at preventing strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, both on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and on adjacent territory and critical infrastructure facilities."

Alexei Likhachev, chief executive, Russian state nuclear energy firm Rosatom

A Russian service member stands guard at a checkpoint near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is proceeding agonizingly slowly, but it is proceeding. Ukrainian troops have succeeded in freeing a number of small Ukrainian towns and villages from Russian occupation. When the starkly savage division between the Wagner group's Yevgeny Prigozhen and the Russian military burst into flames, there were thoughts that the tide had turned significantly enough to allow Ukraine to move forward with greater confidence. Rumours abounded; that Russian troops were being pulled away from the front line to protect Moscow, that some troops were throwing their lot in with Wagner.

 

Then the volatile nature of the lunatics that have pursued this destructive war turned rebellion into farce; Russian warplanes were bombing the Wagner convoy as it advanced from Rostov-on-Don toward the Russian capital. Finally, an emergency intervention by the president of Belarus persuaded Prigozhen to withdraw his troops in exchange for amnesty, a promise by Putin that he will not be charged for leading an insurrection, going into exile in Belarus where he has not yet arrived.

 

Now the Ukrainian president has warned of a threat from Russia through a plan to attack the nuclear plant it has occupied with the potential to cause a radiation disaster. Weeks ago, residents were ushered out of the towns, including the nuclear plant's closest city Enerhodar, people forced to abandon their homes. The Kremlin, in response, denies there is any threat potential from their forces and turned the situation around to accuse Ukraine of planning an attack.

 

Yet the concern over the fate of the huge nuclear power station is not misplaced. Months have been spent by the UN's head of the atomic energy agency in efforts to negotiate a safety perimeter to protect the facility, even as areas nearby the plant were under repeated shelling. His efforts came to nothing. "The military situation has become increasingly tense", noted the International Atomic Energy Agency. 

 

Rescuers work at the site of a residential area heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine May 3, 2023. REUTERS/Stringer

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is unfolding in Zaporizhzhia province and adjacent in Donetsk province. The plant's six reactors were shut down months ago reducing the risk of meltdown, but experts warn a radiation release could occur should the system that keeps the reactors' cores and spent fuel cool, lose power or water. 

 

To the present, Ukrainian forces have made incremental gains in the province, one of four regions Russian President Putin illegally annexed last year pledging to defend them as Russian territory.

"Anyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it."

"Russia’s weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness. And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy