Russia's Ukraine War of Attrition

"There are craniocerebral injuries, limb fractures, many patients with explosive and shrapnel injuries, burns."

"People were in a difficult condition, both physically and psychologically."

"Now our efforts are focused on the children who suffered. We work with four children. Three children out of four are in serious condition. In addition to severe stress, they have blast and shrapnel injuries, burns and fractures."

"The children are in serious condition."

Tetyana Kvitnytska, deputy head, Dnipropetrovsk regional health department

People stand next to a residential house destroyed by a Russian military strike on Wednesday in Chaplyne, in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region. (Dmytro Smolienko/Reuters)

 

 On the anniversary of Ukraine's independence from Russia, there was a general alert to all Ukrainian citizens to be aware and to take shelter at any air raid signals. Independence anniversary celebrations were officially cancelled for fear that the Russian military would target large crowds of civilians. Despite being under threat, Ukrainians decided they would celebrate anyway, and they did on their national Independence Day holiday.

 

There was a surprise attack on a train station in Chaplyne, a small town in the central Dnipropetrovsk region on Wednesday, exactly six months since the Russian 'special military operation' was launched into Ukraine. The Kremlin stated that its military had targeted a troop-carrying train, killing 200 Ukrainian troops. 

 

In actual fact, 25 people were killed as a result of that deadly strike, and 31 injured. According to witnesses, some of the victims which included at least one child, burned to death either trapped in burning train cars or in passing cars. "Everything sank into dust", 65-year-old Chaplyne resident Olena Budnyk, stated. "There was a dust storm. We couldn't see anything. We didn't know where to run". 

And once again a nuclear meltdown fear is pervading the area surrounding the Ukrainian nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia, which Russian occupation is endangering, with Russia using the plant as a base from which to shell surrounding towns and Ukrainian military bases. On Wednesday the last remaining electrical transmission wire powering the plant was damaged. Fortunately a backup power line re-connected the plant, with the use of electricity from a different, but non-nuclear plant.

 

Russia has been trying to modernize its army in recent years, including by increasing numbers of contract soldiers   Reuters

 

During the six-month conflict Russia has lost tens of thousands of military personnel, as has Ukraine. Russia's losses include military commanders, a  highly unusual number for such a short period of time. A testament to Ukrainian defiance of a larger, better-equipped, but inferior-motivated army that has been demoralized by the heavy losses it has sustained. To compensate for those losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a major increase of his military forces in the light of a projected long grind ahead in his determination to conquer Ukraine's spirit.

The aim is to increase troop numbers by an additional 137,000 servicemen, roughly13 percent, to 1.15 million by year's end. The question of where those 'volunteers' would be coming from, to augment the dwindling troop numbers, whether by increasing draft numbers, or recruiting additional volunteers is yet unknown. Some Russian military analysts expect more reliance on volunteers to prevent the Russian public from creating a backlash should the draft be expanded.

Acco9rding to the U.S. Pentagon, up to 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded, thus impairing Moscow's plans to plan large offensives. Military analysts feel the planned troop levels may not in fact meet the needs of sustainable operational numbers. While the Kremlin speaks of reliance on volunteers to augment the ranks, it is questioned where those volunteers will come from. Even promising imprisoned criminals sentence forgiveness in exchange for volunteering for military service, has resulted in few volunteers.

Another expert has pointed out that training is time-consuming; complex modern weapons training normally take three years to ensure competence, while draftees serve one year only. "A draft won't help that, so there will be no increase in the number of draftees", state RIA Novosti news agency quoted military expert Alexei Leonkov, as warning of the difficulties that lie ahead. 

 

A Russian soldier guards an area at the Alley of Glory in the Ukrainian city of Kherson, which was captured in March. Photograph: AP

 

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remains chaotic and volatile, not only because of Ukraine and Russia blaming one another for shelling at the plant but because of other issues. The Russian-installed regional government now accuses Ukrainian troops of having caused not only the fire that damaged the transmission lines, while Ukraine's nuclear energy agency Energoatom pointed to "actions of the invaders", but nature too has taken a hand in increasing the element of danger to the plant and the areas surrounding it most immediately.

"The situation is extremely dangerous. I'm receiving reports that there are fires in the forest near the power plant. We still have to examine this issue more", warned Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Wildfires in nearby forests either attributable to natural causes or to dry conditions being ignited by stray shells or missiles hitting the forests. Either way, it's an increase in the danger level of the potential for disaster at the plant.