Not so Simple, is it Russia?

Not so Simple, is it Russia?

"Russia is not in great shape to continue this campaign anytime soon."

"Russian soldiers have been in the field in Belarus for months and in intense combat over six weeks. Physical, mental, psychological and emotional factors have taken their toll."

"Many have committed criminal actions. These troops, in my view, are done."

"You can't throw units like these back into the fight and expect different results. I'd suggest Russia is not in great shape to continue this campaign anytime soon."

Former U.S. Lt.Gen. Mark Hertling

Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

An armored convoy of pro-Russia troops drive down a road leading to the besieged south

Russia has decided to withdraw forces from the Ukraine north where it has been unaccountably bogged down, unable to move forward, meeting unexpectedly strong resistance from the Ukrainian military. And even as the Russian military has been unable to make headway, to realize their intention of entering Kyiv and removing the government, its change of tactics, to assemble the aggregate of its troops in the east to secure the Donbas and bring the self-styled Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk under Russian rule, doubts have arisen that it can succeed in that operation, as well. 

An urgent appeal was made by NATO's Jens Stoltenberg for allies to provide Ukraine with more anti-tank weapons, air-defence systems, humanitarian assistance and financial aid, to be timed prior to Russia being prepared to reconstitute its forces. Russia, he pointed out, has been forced by circumstances to alter its war plans in recognition of the fierce Ukrainian resistance.

"Moscow is not giving up its ambitions in Ukraine. We now see a significant movement of troops away from Kyiv to regroup, rearm and resupply", stated NATOs secretary-general in warning. On the western edge of the Donbas, Kramatorsk, where Ukraine's military headquarters for the country's east sits, has been repeatedly targeted by Russian shelling. Despite which, defence experts insist Moscow will not be capable of reconstituting its forces for weeks leading up to a push east and south.

Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images

Ukrainian troops drive a captured Russian military vehicle after retaking the village of Mala Rogan, east of Kharkiv, March 28, 2022.

 

Forced out of the north of Ukraine, Russian commanders require the luxury of time in a tight schedule, to assess operational failures and come up with new strategies. Additional training, the construction of new military structures may be required as well, which could take weeks to accomplish. Units will require reorganization, others require time to rest and tend to injured soldiers and repair equipment damaged in the initial weeks of combat. 

Re-equipped and restocked there is the critical issue of physically covering a distance that exists between Belarus and Russia to relaunch into Ukraine. Moscow will find it immensely difficult to regenerate forces because of the loss of commanders as well as soldiers given the "terrible condition of equipment and supplies going into the fight", and the poor training of Russian units, pointed out ,Lt.Gen. Hertling.

At the start of the invasion, Ukraine possessed ten well-equipped brigades representing approximately 30,000 troops in the Donbas region where Kyiv's forces were fighting Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions for the past seven years. In the process becoming acquainted with the failings of the Russian military and the ethnic-Russian Ukrainian rebels, giving them the advantage that the Kremlin had never considered as a potential to motivate and drive the Ukrainian forces to the successes they have since realized.

Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas frontline battling Russian-backed rebels. Photograph: EyePress News/Rex/Shutterstock