The Hysterical West, and Calm, Collected Russia

"[An invasion could begin] any day now."

"We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window."

"The United States would] defend every inch of NATO territory-- and Russia, we think, fully understands that message."

U.S. National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told his countrymen and -women Monday night that he had been told Russian forces would invade Wednesday.  EPA

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is adamant that his demands be met before he is prepared to discuss any withdrawal of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine with the full panoply of advanced military equipment, there for the express purpose of mounting war games with Belarus -- no additional agenda being contemplated whatsoever. That an invasion is imminent is a feverish figment of the overheated imagination of the West, neurotic and immeasurably out of whack with reality.

All Mr. Putin reasonably wishes for is an agreement from NATO and guarantees from the United States that include absolute assurance that entry to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for Ukraine will remain a non-starter. That missile deployment adjacent Russia's border with its near-abroad neighbours be halted, along with the scaling back of NATO's military infrastructure in eastern Europe to 1997 levels. Mr. Putin as marionette master.

"The diplomatic path remains open. The way for Moscow to show that it wants to pursue that path is simple", said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, yet again, following Saturday discussions with Asian allies. What Washington and its allies have been busy scaling back is their embassy staff; at least those who have not yet been evacuated. As well as urgently informing their nationals they would do well to immediately depart from Ukraine.

The timeline is becoming ever narrower. While American officials claim they were unable to confirm reports, U.S. Intelligence now indicates that Moscow plans to begin their invasion of Ukraine on Wednesday. Washington, noted Mr. Sullivan, would continue to share what it knows with the world for the purpose of denying Moscow the opportunity to stage a surprise "false flag" operation, a pretext for justifying a military attack.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has ordered diplomats to shift embassy operations out of Kiev. AFP via Getty Images

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz scheduled a trip for Monday to Kyiv and Moscow for more diplomatic efforts to speak with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, calling pre-meeting, on Russia to de-escalate, warning of sanctions should Moscow choose to invade. These meetings, with one European head of state after another popping up in Moscow to sit opposite Mr. Putin at a table long enough for little folk to play a football game on, are redundantly repetitive, all eliciting the same yawning response.

Yesterday, in a discussion between U.S. President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the two agreed on the necessity of continuing diplomatic overtures in hopes of deterring Russia's military buildup into becoming an invasion. In the spirit of good fellowship and mutual admiration, Mr. Zelenskiy invited Mr. Biden to soon visit Ukraine; a note of risible optimism.

According to Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Kyiv to date has been the recipient of close to 1,500 tonnes of ammunition delivered on 17 flights, courtesy of allies.With the United States supplying roughly 180 tonnes of that total. The Kremlin's complaint is that the United States has failed to take Russian concerns into account; that no "substantial answer" has been received addressing key elements of its security demands.

Ukraine has expressed a wish for continued discussions with Russia and members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe within 48 hours -- where a discussion of Russia's military buildup can take place. Moscow -- according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba -- has not responded in the wake of Kyiv invoking a portion of the Vienna Document security agreement demanding Moscow explain its military moves.

Ukrainian service members walk with M141 Bunker Defeat Munition weapons supplied by the United States during drills at the International Peacekeeping Security Centre near Yavoriv in the Lviv region, Ukraine, February 4, 2022. REUTERS/Roman Baluk/File Photo