Preparing for War -- But not Necessarily War

"We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead."

"We believe that there is a very distinct possibility that Vladimir Putin will order an attack on Ukraine."

"It could take a number of different forms. It could happen as soon as tomorrow, or it could take some weeks yet."

"He has put himself in a position with military deployments to be able to act aggressively against Ukraine at any time now."

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan

 

"It could involve actors playing mourners for people who are killed in an event they would have created themselves, that would involve the deployment of corpses to represent bodies of people purportedly killed in an incident like this."

"It shows the level of cynicism, frankly that is on the other side of this conflict."

Jon Finer, deputy U.S. national security adviser

 

"I think people are getting ready for different scenarios, and we're ready to fight for every house and every street if necessary."

"[The negotiations ongoing between Russia and the U.S. are] disturbing, [as an instance of blackmail rather than genuine diplomacy]."

"We would like to see a genuine diplomatic process, in good faith, on how we can make Russia leave its neighbours alone and how we can make Russia start respecting international laws."

Andriy Shevchenko, Ukraine's former ambassador to Canada

A Ukrainian soldier on the front lines near Trokhizbenka in eastern Ukraine.  Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

According to American intelligence, Moscow is giving consideration to staging a propaganda video purporting to demonstrate that an attack by Ukraine on Russia, or on Russian-speaking people (the insurgents in the Donbass region of Ukraine, for example) that would serve to provoke a Russian 'defensive' response might be underway. A pretense for a counter-attack; the country conspiring to attack its neighbour, prepared to claim an invasion of Ukraine is a counter-measure to Ukraine's scurrilous intention to attack Russia. As transparent as it is convoluted.

But a consideration, one of many options developed by Moscow to justify its massed troops crossing the border into Ukraine; to defend itself from the country it is preparing to invade. This, according to a senior US. official discussing intelligence assessments under anonymity to protect his sources. In an effort to undermine the possibility of Russia carrying through with this plan, the conspiracy is being published by the US.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby described the propaganda video as a misconstruction of reality, where corpses would be the main feature, and mourners portrayed by actors, the finished product to be circulated within Russia itself to generate outrage from Russian civilians, calling for their nation's military to intervene and save the day. A video which could be put forward as evidence that Russia had no choice but to defend itself from the dastardly plans of a territorial-hungry Ukraine.

The troop and tank buildup within Russia at Ukraine's border, though massive and costly is defended by President Putin as a move necessitated by the need to protect Russian security. In turn accusing Ukraine, the U.S. and Western allies of hysteria and provocative behaviour leading him to warn he could accept discussions on a diplomatic solution and on the other hand, engage in some military, protective manoeuverig as well. Taken to mean that just as Russia grabbed Crimea, it could now take possession of the Donbass and raise the Russian flag over Luhansk and Donetsk.

The video could be designed to depict an attack; explosion and corpses, along with the aftermath, according to the intelligence assessment by the Americans. Images would possibly be altered to indicate that the military equipment involved would appear to be Ukrainian or from allied nations. And in a further scheme to implicate NATO, the depiction of Turkish-manufactured Bayraktar drones could be included.

The entire concept of such a video sounds naively improbable. But the United States, much to Ukraine's dismay, has been pushing hard to put Russia and Mr. Putin in a corner, albeit one of their own making. And it is the United States primarily alongside NATO, that has been pounding the war drums, while Ukraine still holds out hope that rational discussion can help to find a diplomatic way out of the tense and threatening situation.

U.S. intelligence estimates that Russia now has in place at least 70 percent of the combat power required to proceed with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It would not be an event that starts earlier than the next three weeks to a month, in any event. President Putin would be sensitive to Beijing's reliance on its great good friend to hold off hostilities until the 2022 Winter Games have concluded in its entirety, before an invasion is launched. And then a further complication; the ground thawing close to spring.

A Russian air force vehicle in Voronezh on Friday, in what was described as a training exercise. Photograph: EPN/Newscom/Avalon

"All of our red flags or checkboxes have been ticked in the past couple of weeks."

"The evidence we have strongly suggests that literally every large ground formation of the Russian armed forces is involved in this"

"That’s literally unprecedented."

Researcher from the open-source Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT)

In assessing the situation it's difficult to fathom that Mr. Putin might honestly believe that the ultimatum he delivered to NATO and its member states that they must withdraw all their troops from their stations in eastern Europe, and pledge never to consider inviting Ukraine to join the 30-member mutual-protective group. Withdrawal would most certainly include the latest three thousand troops the U.S. has deployed to Poland and Romania. While the U.S. is busy moving Ukraine and Russia closer to war, it has no intention of deploying any members of its own military within Ukraine.

The Biden White House speaks in one breath of both deterrence and sanctions, and oncoming conflict. Kyiv is to make use of the arms Washington has delivered. And America's part in shielding Ukraine from Russia has been fulfilled by the sabre-rattling it matches Russia with -- and that most certainly does have a deterrence effect of monumental proportions. While Russia cannot dictate to NATO how it must conduct its affairs, the U.S. cannot convince Russia that Ukraine is a fully sovereign nation, determined to remain so.

 

U.S. Army Soldiers exit a U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft at Jasionka Rzeszow Airport on February 6, 2022, in Rzeszow, Poland. Omar Marques/Getty