NATO Sanctions and Russian Alternatives

"We're co-ordinating with our allies and partners, with the energy sector stakeholders, including on how best to share energy reserves in the event that Russia turns off the spigot, or initiates a conflict that disrupts the flow of gas through Ukraine."

"This is not alarmism. This is simply the facts."

"We don't believe that Mr. President Putin has made a decision, but he has put in place the capacity, should he so decide, to act very quickly against Ukraine, and in ways that would have terrible consequences for Ukraine, for Russia, but consequences also for all of us."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken

"We are living, to my understanding, the most dangerous moment for security in Europe after the end of the Cold War."

"We believe that a diplomatic way out of the crisis is still possible. We hope for the best but we prepare for the worst."

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell

A worker for the Russian state energy company Gazprom surveys a natural gas treatment facility at the starting point of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in northwest Russia. Peter Kovalev/TASS/Getty Images

 

On Monday French President Emmanuel Macron held talks in Moscow with President Putin, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did the same in Washington in an effort to co-ordinate policies amidst concerns over the potential of Russia mounting an invasion of Ukraine. All visible indications are certainly there; the massive troop build-up, the number of tanks rumbling into the vicinity close to the Ukraine border, the field hospitals set up.

If this is all merely war games, a rehearsal for some unspecified, non-existent views of security responses to an imagined threat to Russia it is less than convincing that such a full-scale military enterprise would be seen as necessary to be alert and prepared to respond should an occurrence take place threatening to destabilize the Russian Federation. Stationing all that military hardware and troops in door-knocking distance to Ukraine represents an obvious intent.

President Macron has taken a position contrary to that of the United States' counter-belligerence to Moscow. Informing Vladimir Putin in his person-to-person, in-person meeting with Mr. Putin his hopes for de-escalation. The Moscow visit led to concerns within NATO that Mr. Macron's words and actions would undermine Western unity. Kremlin concerns, he stated, over post-Cold War security in Europe were legitimate as he saw it, and nor was an invasion of Ukraine likely to occur.

Mr. Macron's relations with Mr. Putin are collegial in nature, tolerant of Mr. Putin's security concerns seen through the lens of a lingering fear of Western interference in Russia's sphere of influence convincing him that its purpose is to destabilize and threaten relations Russia seeks to re-forge with Russia's former satellites; a perfectly innocent-of-sinister intentions situation on Russia's part with no need for outside influencers to become involved.

 

A worker adjusts a pipeline valve at the Gazprom PJSC Slavyanskaya compressor station, the starting point of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, in Ust-Luga, Russia, on Thursday, Jan. 28, 2021. Nord Stream 2 is a 1,230-kilometer (764-mile) gas pipeline that will double the capacity of the existing undersea route from Russian fields to Europe — the original Nord Stream — which opened in 2011.  Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

 

For his part, Mr. Putin praised his French counterpart, pointing out France's mediation, neutrality and contribution to the peace accord reached with Ukraine in 2015 after Ukraine lost Crimea to Russian piracy, along with former French president Sarkozy's peace plan intervention in 2008 between Russia and Georgia, at a time when Russia pirated two provinces from Georgia. 

"I see how much efforts the current leadership of France and the president personally is applying in order to solve the crisis related to providing equal security in Europe for a serious historical perspective", purred Mr. Putin. In stark contrast to White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan's warning of the day before that an attack on Ukraine could be ordered in days or weeks to come. "We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead."

Yet the Kremlin has other tricks up its sleeve to convince Europe that they're taking the wrong tack with NATO. Having just signed an agreement with the People's Republic of China worth billions in oil and gas revenues, Russia will suffer no sanction consequences meant to harm its economy should it enter Ukraine. Cutting Europe off from much-needed gas imports. European dependence on Russian gas supplying it with one-third of its needs leaves it vulnerable to a Russian pay-back for the imposition of sanctions.

 

Ukrainian activists attend their rally called 'Thank you for the Nord Stream' in front of the German embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, 10 December 2021. [EPA-EFE/SERGEY DOLZHENKO]