Russia's Declining Population Base

"If we had money to provide for our children, then of course it would've been different, and we would've had more kids."

"The entire family lived on my dad's pension and my mom's salary. We are three sisters, but there are just three grandchildren."

Maria Ivanko, Kemerovo, Russia

 

"Many people would like to leave."

"Everyone I talk to here says, we would leave if we could."

Elena Ponkratova, local journalist

 

Last year, a demographic report out of the United Nations calculated the "pessimistic" outlook for Russia to be the population descending to 124.6 million by 2050 and to 83.7 million by 2100. Russia has long been facing a stagnant birthrate, its population slumping. One issue is that women are bearing fewer children, reflective of the economy. Kemerovo, where Maria Ivanko lives, is a Siberian coal mine town where small family sizes reflect Russia's stagnant birthrates and slumping population.

President Vladimir Putin has spoken of feeling haunted by the prospect of a shrinking Russia. He prioritizes reversing the population contraction in Russia by incentivizing Russian women to bear larger families by 2024. The population in Kemerovo and surrounding steppes located some 2,600 miles east of Moscow declined by losing 100,000 of their numbers in the past decade, leaving 2.6 million inhabitants, according to Rosstat, Russia's statistics agency.

 

Visitors take in a panoramic view on a hilltop in Kemerovo, Russia, on Nov. 14. (Arthur Bondar for The Washington Post)

 

The biggest population decline since 2005 is expected to occur, accelerated by closing Russian borders to migrants, and the effect of coronavirus deaths of over 36,000 Russians. Russia also suffers a high rate of early death resulting from runaway alcohol consumption. According to government expectations there will be a 352,500-person population decline seen in 2020; leading to a more general estimated decrease of 1.2 million people between 2020 and 2024. At the present time, Russia has a population of about 146.7 million.

In stark contrast, the United States expects a population growth of 0.72 percent in 2020. Around Kemerov the coal industry, a boom industry during the years of the Soviet Union, has become a burden. Struggling before the entry of the pandemic, the falling economy served to drive down coal demand and increased layoffs among miners typically paid less than $400 monthly, forcing more layoffs. Wages on occasion have been withheld for up to three months for those who have managed to retain work in the mines.

A local college offers a mining program which at one time had around 90 students each term, reduced now to one student in the past year. Young people migrate to other Siberian cities or to Moscow looking for work. A local demographer speaks of a larger drop in coming years, as a consequence of the pandemic. Additionally, marriages through July of 2020 saw a 23 percent reduction in comparison with the same period the year before, according to Rosstat.

 

Fresh graves in Kemerovo on Nov. 15. (Arthur Bondar for The Washington Post)

 

The Kemerovo region's five maternity wards saw three wards converted to coronavirus treatment centres. In a small section of the Kemerovo cemetery 25 plots were recently dug on a Sunday morning amidst rows of other new graves with dates of death engraved of September, October and early November. And although Russia's official figures total fewer than 40,000 deaths from COVID, it is assumed generally that the real figure is substantially higher. 

The rural areas have struggled during this time with the lack of available hospital beds and medicine. Respiratory illnesses and cancers were already prevalent in Kemerovo as a result of severe pollution, with the mortality rate among the highest in Russia; 14.6 deaths per 1,000 people in 2019 in comparison with nine births per 1,000. "Ask anyone here, and they'll have a loved one who died from cancer", local activist Maksim Uchatov remarked.

Radioactive: Stop, no Entry. (Photo: Arthur Bondar)

Fifteen residents of a nearby village last year appealed to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for asylum in a video address, citing the fact that their homes are located mere steps away from an abandoned underground mine they claim to be still radioactive. "Stop no entry" signs surround one plot of ground. The response by the Canadian government was that the residents' request could be entertained only if the applicants qualify as refugees under immigration law. Which identifies 'refugees' as those living outside their country of origin.

A view into an open coal mine in Kiselyovsk, seen Nov. 13. (Arthur Bondar for The Washington Post)