Armenia and Azerbaijan at War Again Over Nagorno-Karabakh

"The settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is our historical mission."

"We must resolve this so that historical justice can be restored. We must do so to restore the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan."

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev 

 

"What we're seeing after the first day of escalation is that armor, aviation, heavy artillery and drones are being used, which suggests that this wasn't spontaneous but a well-planned operation. "

"If this conflict isn't stopped through serious outside pressure, then war will come, which would be a catastrophe."

"It would send ripples through the entire North Caucasus region and affect all major players, including Russia and Turkey."

Vadim Mukhanov, Caucasus expert, Moscow State Institute of International Relations

Fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in the Caucasus escalated on Monday, with fresh casualties reported in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

 

Martial law was declared by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, as he ordered a general mobilization in the face of "preplanned aggression" by Azerbaijan. For his part, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, himself declaring martial law, informed his people in a state television address that Armenian forces were inside Azerbaijan territory and his response to that aggression, he promised his home audience, was that "we'll put an end to this occupation."

"The Armenian people are ready for that war ... a war against our independence, freedom and dignity", Prime Minister Pashinyan announced, addressing his nation on television. And in his speech, President Aliyev responded by pointing out that Azeri forces are "fighting on our soil, and have no claim to anyone's land. We'll win because our cause is just". This is a conflict that arrives on the tail of tensions that arose last week when Aliyev claimed Armenia was massing forces near Nagorno-Karabak in readiness for a new war.

The two countries sit on a tinderbox of recrimination and accusation, ever since Armenia gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh along with seven surrounding districts from Azerbaijan in war, post the 1991-collapse of the Soviet Union, of which they were both part of. In 2016, Russia stopped a deadly conflict between the two, pressuring both side to respect the 1994 ceasefire Moscow had arranged. Russia enjoys a mutual-defence pact with Armenia and has a military base in the republic.

Azerbaijan has a mutual-pact relationship with Turkey, with whom it hosted large-scale joint military exercises just last month. "Turkey stands by its Azeri brothers, with all its means", declared Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdgan. "Serious concerns about the renewal of large-scale military conflict" was expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling for a halt to hostilities. Which didn't preclude Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussing the fighting with Mevlut Cavusoghlu, his Turkish counterpart.

 

A howitzer fires munitions toward Armenian positions Monday. Violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted Sunday in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defense/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Decades of mediation on the part of the United States, France and Russia have failed to move the two sides closer to signing a peace agreement. Armenia remains adamant that the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has the right to self-determination, even as Azerbaijan claims its territorial integrity which includes Nagorno-Karabakh must be upheld. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh have taken to air raid shelters in the face of ongoing conflict, its population comprised of majority Armenians.

Azerbaijan maintains it had raised a "counterattack" following Armenians firing on its military positions and civilian settlements near the border. An assertion rejected by Armenia, which counters that Azerbaijan had begun alone bombarding the contact line separating the two forces, shelling civilians including the region's capital, Stepanakert. 

 

Armenia has refrained from recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh's independence in talks led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in an effort to negotiate a conflict settlement.

And while the OSCE called for a ceasefire leading to the resumption of negotiations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization positioned itself as being "deeply concerned" by the fighting. Even Pope Francis had his say, calling on the two leaders to resolve the crisis "not through the use of force and arms but through the means of dialogue and negotiation", speaking from the Vatican.

Tanks, artillery, missile systems and aircraft are being used by the Azeri army against Armenian positions at the front line and into Armenian-held territory where up to a dozen Armenian anti-aircraft systems were destroyed, and an Azeri helicopter was shot down, according to the Baku-based Defence Ministry. In exchange, Armenian forces struck four Azeri helicopters, ten tanks and roughly15 drones, according to the Nagorno-Karabakh Deputy Defence Minister.