A Changing Middle East

"I think perhaps there is the beginning of a reduction in the dependency on the U.S., and a shift over to Israel now."

"It's so much more accessible, to turn to an ally, a regional partner, if there are any concerns -- whether it's from a military point of view of an economic point of view."

"And I think you're now going to see that shift."

Marc Schneier, special adviser king of Bahrain

Leaders of Bahrain and UAE  (Photo: AP)

Expectations have been whetted by declarations of mutual satisfaction and pleasure that formal peace agreements have been signed between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, leading to a potential domino effect of other Arab nations finally making the decision to set aside long-standing attitudes of animosity at the reality of a Jewish state in their midst in the Middle East. These are nations that had never gone to war against Israel, nations that never expelled their Jewish populations, nor withdrew citizenship from them.

They are also nations with a longstanding distanced, but practical relationship with the Jewish State that evolved over concerns that grew into alarm at the unambiguous aspirations of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the only other non-Arab, Aryan Persian Muslim state in the Middle East, to reinstate itself with its historical role as the most influential, leading Muslim nation in the region; a Shiite Muslim country among a majority Sunni Muslim Middle East.

Saudi Arabia has been the voice of authority in the Muslim Middle East, the protector and steward of the two most holy places in Islam, Mecca and Medina. The House of Saud found itself and its role of protector of the faith responsible for these sacred-to-Islam sanctuaries threatened by the aspirations of Iran, anxious to unseat it from its position of power and authority. It is the threat of violence on the part of Revolutionary Iran that unnerves its Sunni Arab neighbours.

 

Mike Pompeo meets with Sudan's Abdel Fattah al-Burhan   (Photo: AFP)

 

A country that quietly went about establishing itself as an aspirational nuclear state, not, as it was wont to declare, for energy purposes, but for nuclear heads to fit neatly on its developing, sophisticated short-and medium-range missile delivery systems. Iran's open threats -- expressed unambiguously by its former President Ahmadinejad in an address at the United Nations -- to expunge the state of Israel from the geography of the Middle East, might not have alarmed its Muslim neighbours, but the knowledge that it could also turn its expanding cache of weapons on them as well to force compliance with its plans, did.

 

Israel's reputation as a powerful technological giant, with a military whose prowess was proven time and time again when it defended itself from combined attacks from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq impressed its neighbours in the belief that it was the only country in the region capable of withstanding and defending against the imputed threats to the entire area, mounted by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That belief in Israel's near invincibility in the theatre of war, impressed its neighbours to the extent that it began to view the Jewish state as a potential ally against the threat of Iran.

 

The bonus is trade ties and a diminution of tension. The decision to formally accept Israel's presence as a Jewish state and to forge deeper ties was negotiated in large part by the Trump administration in Washington, using its considerable influence to help bring all the parties together in amity and self-interest for their shared futures. White House chief of staff Mark Meadows informed reporters on Ar Force One that five other countries were on the cusp of following the UAE and Bahrainian initiatives.

 

Oman also welcomed neighbour UAE's deal with Israel but said it stayed committed to "the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people who aspire to an independent state" with east Jerusalem as its capital.

New Sultan of Oman  (Photo: AFP, HO, Oman TV)

Saudi Arabia, the most influential of the Arab countries declared itself not quite ready to take that step. But Oman and Sudan are considered as the possible next assenters, as are Morocco and possibly Kuwait. The warming relations in the Middle East fail to sit well with Turkey which warned "history and the people of the region will never forget and will never forgive the hypocritical behaviour of the United Arab Emirates". Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to cast off diplomatic ties with the UAE.

 

This, from a country that continues to berate and accuse Israel of human rights abuses against the Palestinians, when Fatah and Hamas conspire constantly to murder Israeli Jews, spurning any suggestions at 'normalization' with Israel, with the intention of ultimately destroying it. Refusing all offers of peace in rational negotiations. And while Erdogan foams with rage over Israel, he leads his country in a brisk trade union with Israel and is happy to have thousands of Israeli Jews travel to Turkey as tourists.