The Weapons of Proxy War

"When you look at it, Israel's strategic calculation is a simple one. [The Gulf countries] do not represent a meaningful threat [to Israel]."
"They do represent a meaningful counterbalance to Iran."
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Saudi Arabia

"[The militaries of Gulf nations have been] a combination of something between symbols of deterrence and national flying clubs. Now they're suddenly being used [advanced stocked armaments]."
"This could be the precipitating event: the emerging Sunni-Shia civil war coupled with the sale of advanced Russian air-defence systems to Iran."
"If anything is going to result in F-35 clearance to the Gulf States, this is the combination of events."
Richard L. Aboulafia, Teal Group

Russia, a major supplier of arms to the Islamic Republic of Iran, has reached a decision to sell its advanced air-defence missile system to Iran. There are few warplanes in flight today that Moscow's more advanced air defence system would be unable to detect. The U.S.-made, advanced technology F-35 fighter jet is thought of as the ultimate air arsenal. Production of that warplane represents the world's most expensive weapons project.

With its stealth capabilities it is the most sought-after warplane, which until the present time the U.S. administration would never consider releasing in sales to any Middle East country other than Israel. Now that the balance of power in the Middle East has been shifted from America's traditional Sunni ally nations to the Shiite-led Iran crescent that has been destabilizing the region, it is unlikely that Israel would protest the sale of the F-35 to an Arab country at this time.

Saudi Arabia is currently making use of F-15 fighter jets from Boeing, in its bombing of Yemen, against the Houthi proxies of Iran. The current sectarian adversarial situation in the Middle East, admixed with battles against terrorist networks has upended the region's normal state of alert fire-spotting, to one of full-bore fire-fighting, with the two major adversaries, Iran and Saudi Arabia aligning their support against one another.

In the U.S., the administration embarked on a cost-cutting venture that straitened the purchasing power of the American military. As the Pentagon is cutting back because of a tighter budget, American arms manufacturers are looking with huge anticipation at the unravelling of order in the Middle East, sharpening their pencils and scribbling profit margins for the near future sales looming on the horizon.

Defence industry officials informed Congress that an anticipated number of requests from Arab allies in conflict with the Islamic State; Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Egypt, are expected to begin ordering thousands of U.S.-produced missiles, bombs and other weapons of war to replenish their depleted arsenals. The restrictions that had normally applied to ensure that Israel always had the edge on advanced weapons for its military appears to be falling away.

Qatar is seeking to purchase Boeing F-15 fighters to replace its aging French Mirage jets, above. Credit Louisa Gouliamaki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Israel and the Arab states appear now to be in an unstated yet obvious alliance against Iran and its allies. Qatar, for example, signed a $11-billion deal with the Pentagon for the purchase of Apache attack helicopters and Patriot and Javelin air-defence systems. They're now looking at Boeing F-15 fighters in replacement of their aging French Mirage jets. Then again, it is Saudi Arabia that has topped the expenditures with over $80-billion on weapons last year alone.

Unspoken in the vortex that the Middle East is fast becoming is that it is becoming a proxy battleground for two other nations whose cross purposes with one another have become increasingly obvious from tense standoffs in eastern Europe and the Middle East; Washington and Moscow have invested much in their relations with countries aligned with one or the other.

While the collateral damage will be physically present elsewhere, the adversarial relationship between the two will be played out by the nations each supports.