Turn of the Tide

"People are afraid of the air strikes, that they might be used as human shields or be bombed."
"Many people fled to the countryside or to Turkey. I can't say how many went but in my lane there are just 15 families left."
"When small planes for reconnaissance appear the jihadists hide. They even lock the doors of their headquarters. They also remove their families, their women and children, outside Raqqa."
Abu Mohammed, activist, Raqqa, Syria

"The people here don't want ISIL but they also don't trust America. If the U.S. is really against ISIS why did they turn a blind eye to Bashar al-Assad? He is a terrorist who bombs us."
Raqqa resident

"The ISIL threat is exaggerated. They are just fighters who won  battle because the other side just had light weapons. Moreover, they don't have public support."
Raqqa resident

"Two days ago, they left their main headquarters, and they moved to live inside our civilian neighbourhoods. They took over all the houses abandoned by their inhabitants, such as the houses of the Christians, former officials and people who left the city. They also use the poorer houses as stores for weapons."
Unnamed Mosul resident

AP Photo   Islamic State fighters parade with a missile, Raqqa, Syria

When ISIS took control of Raqqa and made it their headquareters, they initiated public executions soon after their takeover. There  they also indulged in mass beheadings of captives. This has not endeared them to the citizens of the city who had mostly welcomed the law and order they brought with them, originally. So there's some level of disgruntlement at their presence. And no small amount of satisfaction that recent bombings by France and the U.S. has suddenly made ISIS jihadis less visible in Raqqa.

Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham fighters are now mounting barricades, increasing checkpoints and booby-trapping roads that lead to Mosul, according to residents. Fearing the pledged U.S. air strikes and a land-based counter-offensive in both Iraq and Syria, residents living under ISIS rule are now witnessing a melting away of their fear. Scores of men in an ISIS training camp and an arms depot nearby Mosul were killed on Thursday and Friday, resulting from French and American air strikes.

Nothing sobers the victorious quite like the prospect of losing themselves to unplanned-for death. This, despite their boasts of martyrdom and how much they love death and fantasize their entrance as martyrs to Paradise. Command and control centres in Mosul and Raqqa have been evacuated. The courageous warriors of the Islamic State have begun using Yazidi women captives as "human shields". 

Kurdish Peshmerga in Iraq in the north and Iraqi army and Iranian-sourced militia forces have stabilized front lines nearer to Baghdad. While the jihadists had big gains to their triumphant credit in the summer, the last month has seen a loss of territory, along with control of the Mosul Dam returning to the government, as well a handful of towns and villages. Feeling more secure in Raqqa, headquarters has been set up by ISIS in the ornate former governor's palace.

If the ISIS jihadis are concerned about the air attacks hitting them, well so are the residents. While ISIS disperses its military vehicles and men to prevent them from becoming easy targets, the residents can only await the outcome of what they feel might occur, hoping against hope they will be spared the fate meant for the jihadists.

Local acrtivist Abu Mohammed remains in Raqqa, though as an activist ISIS has put a price on his head. In Mosul where local alliances with Sunni leaders fed up with the Iraqi government's treatment of Iraqi Sunnis had aligned themselves with ISIS, suddenly the risk of assassination of ISIS leaders is on their minds. Reports of local anti-ISIS hit squads attacking the rabidly fanatical ISIS leaders have been heard repeatedly.

According to Mosul residents, four ISIS fighters were killed last week, with some of the assassins taking advantage of ISIS's insistence that women wear niqabs and cloaks. Gearing themselves with these full body coverings gave the assassins the advantage to get close up and personal enough to kill their ISIS adversaries.

There remains residual support in both Mosul and Raqqa for ISIS, but opinion has turned. Abu Mohammed who operates the "Raqqa is being slaughtered silently" website protesting against both the jihadis and the Assad regime, stated that 20% of the population continued their support of ISIS, the rest divided about whether they support; U.S. intervention.