Islamic State Could Challenge Assad
The war in Syria is disappearing off the news agenda behind conflict in
Ukraine, neighboring Iraq, and now the Gaza Strip. Syrian activists and
opposition alike greet expressions of outrage over the civilian death
toll in Gaza with their own disquiet that the killing in their own
country has not been greeted with an equal amount of worldwide
condemnation, despite their constant protestations. As the world looks
elsewhere, the deaths of civilians in Syria continue with little sign of
reprieve.
President Bashar Al-Assad has a renewed sense of legitimacy having won
an election which was widely seen as illegitimate, though not so
preposterous as to be called into question by the international
community. Internally, he has been using this to continue to focus on
his attempts to retake the city of Aleppo by besieging the rebel-held
eastern part of the city. Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for
Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, says this would be a
major boost for Assad.
“Syria is really its four big cities. If he can retake Aleppo -- the
last big city contested by rebels -- he will feel that he has destroyed
the rebellion and retaken Syria,” he said. He explained to The Media
Line that, “He will slowly take back Syria. Assad is winning. Most of
the world will accept his win as the better of two evils. The Islamic
State (ISIS) has so captivated the imagination of the Sunni world and
the international community that Assad's claim that this battle is about
the state versus terrorism is coming true.”
Rather than defeating the extremist threat in Syria, this siege would
be a gift to the ISIS group that has been focusing its activities in the
east of the country toward Iraq. Large gains in Deir Ezzour province
have seen them consolidate power in the region between their power base
through Raqqa, Al Bab and Manbij toward Mosul in Iraq where they took
ground last month in a rapid and surprising offensive which has torn the
already fragile country apart.
What has been seen as a partnership of sorts between the Syrian
government and the Islamic State was overturned this week when the Assad
regime’s air force bombed Al Bab, a town in the Aleppo countryside, for
the first time since ISIS took over the area. The first sign that the
government no longer intends to leave the extremist group untouched
while focusing solely on their mutual enemy, the Syrian rebel and
opposition-held areas of Aleppo and Idlib. Strategically, this may have
more to do with appeasing their allies, such as Iran, who are now
publicly and militarily at odds with the group in Iraq as the battle
becomes increasingly sectarian. A complacent attitude toward the group
as it spreads into neighboring country was not going to last long once
the Shia militias began battles in earnest with the group.
While Iraq is tying up significant ISIS resources, it is also allowing
the group to expand its financial and weaponry resources, much of which
is being stored in Syria. The eastern city of Raqqa is forming the base
for the 'caliphate' [state run according to Islamic law] it’s determined
to create. Once they manage to consolidate their territory in Iraq --
and even more so if the regime besieges Aleppo -- they will be in a
position to push back into rebel held areas of the north.
Syrian opposition forces are still courting western funders in the
hopes meaningful support, which has yet to materialize in earnest, might
still appear. This week a number of them released a statement outlining
their intention to halt cooperation with Jabhat Al-Nusra, the
Al-Qa’ida-linked group which has enjoyed broad based support in
rebel-held areas, even fighting against the Islamic State forces.
Oubai Shahbandar, a spokesperson for the Syrian National Coalition
said, “There has never been a clearer distinction between the moderate
Free Syrian Army and hard-line extremist groups in Syria. While the
Assad regime continues to help ISIS expand by allowing them to move
through regime-held territory, the FSA has made major gains against ISIS
in the past few days, most notably in the Damascus countryside.”
As US Secretary of State John Kerry said, “Assad is the greatest magnet
for terrorism in Syria.” This terrorism has now spread to Iraq where
the sectarian response is further fuelling the problem. What is clear is
that a lack of a clear policy on Syria from the international
community, and a similar lack of direction on Iraq and now the ISIS and
Gaza has led to further chaos which only seems to spread across the
region, further fuelling extremism but providing no answers to the
crisis in Syria or elsewhere.
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