Ukraine in Chaos

"While (the Canadians are) military personnel, there is a strong diplomatic aspect to the mission. We are looking to neutrally observe what we see; to characterize the situation on the ground as honestly as we can."
"We hope to visibly demonstrate our support for Ukraine and that our work is a deterrent to those who might wish to challenge the territorial integrity of Ukraine."
Lt.-Col. Gary Hardwick, Canadian leader of the OSCE monitoring mission

Canada has been among the more vocal of Western countries with the government condemning Moscow's belligerent aggression in stoking the fires of secession/separation in Ukraine's eastern geography. As a middle power without the financial and leadership attributes of the European Union parliament or the United States, Canada with its relatively limited means has every intention of putting those means to work in support of its declarations of condemnation against the Kremlin.

Three Canadian Army officers are set to launch a new first for Canada in leading a nine-member team representing the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe on another mission within the country. Other members on the team are to come from Ukraine, France, Moldova and the United States. The mission's purpose will be the monitoring of the deteriorating security situation across embattled and financially unstable greater Ukraine until May 11.

"This mission constitutes a strong show of support to Ukraine and is a concrete demonstration of Canada's commitment to the security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine", stated Canada's Minister of Defence Rob Nicholson. There are 57 nations representing the membership of the OSCE, NATO allies included, and Ukraine's acting government issued an invitation to the OSCE to observe the security situation. Canada volunteered to lead the mission.

Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, the self-proclaimed mayor of Slovyansk, fourth from left, is flanked by a group of foreign military observers being held by Ponomaryov's group during a press conference in city hall, Slovyansk, eastern Ukraine, April 27, 2014.

It is one fraught with its own kind of danger, given the OSCE's German-led team of eight observers having been taken into 'custody' by the pro-Russian group in the town of Slavyansk that named itself the Donbass people's militia. The mission is "being conducted in order to dispel concerns regarding unusual military activities in Ukraine, and to ensure a continuous international military presence on the ground", according to the Canadian Defence Department.

Ukraine's acting president Olexander  Turchynov has declared Ukraine to be on "full combat alert" in fears of a Russian invasion. Ukraine has 130,000 armed forces personnel which, with reservists called in could be hugely boosted. He has also reinstated compulsory military service, scrapped in late 2013 under a law introduced by then-president Viktor Yanukovych.

Unknown ultra-nationalists activists march towards the Independence Square to commemorate "Maidan heroes" in Kiev on April 29, 2014. (AFP Photo / Sergey Supinsky)

"Given the deteriorating situation in the east and the south ... the rising force of armed pro-Russian units and the taking of public administration buildings ... which threaten territorial integrity", Mr. Turchoynov felt he had no other option. His forces were "helpless" in the face of the chaotic unrest in the east, and beefing up the military's purpose was to stop the anarchic violence.

Through the simple, albeit threatening expedient of posting 40,000 troops with all the military panoply bristling along with their presence; warplanes, tanks, helicopters and military provisions, Moscow is accomplishing through intimidation and encouragement of ethnic Russian radicals a dissolution of the south and east of the country by the sheer force of a minority against the wishes of a fearful minority. No real need to send in the troops.

There are now at least fourteen cities and towns in the coal- and steel-producing Donbass region where part of the "People's Republic of Donetsk" have stormed and captured municipal buildings and police headquarters. "Our main task is to prevent the terrorist threat from spreading to other regions of Ukraine", said Mr. Turchynov, fearful of the spread outside the region to Odessa and Kharkiv.

There was, he said, a "real danger of continental war (being) unleashed against Ukraine" thanks to the campaign by Russian intelligence operatives and special forces troops agitating and fomenting fear and chaos. The presidential elections scheduled for May 25 are being challenged by "the Russian leadership" in a bid to prevent them from taking place giving the government in Ukraine the legitimacy that Moscow claims it now lacks.

Vladimir Putin doesn't feel inclined to back down. He is resurrecting the 'leadership' of Russia in eastern Europe in control of its former captive allies under Soviet domination. He and his cronies (though not he personally) are being squeezed by the sanctions enacted by the European Union and the United States, with presumably, more to come. Russia's economic situation, while nowhere near like Ukraine's, is still heading into recession. This is a costly enterprise for Russia after the Sochi spectacle.

If Russia has potentially much to lose, in its showdown with the West over Ukraine and the not-so-remote possibility the Kremlin has designs on the smaller of its former satellites hosting ethnic Russian populations in the Baltic, while stubbornly refusing to back down and lose face, NATO, in opposition to Russia's moves, has even more to lose. The prestige of American power has already suffered through its poor handling of prior crises from Egypt to Syria, Iran to Somalia.

Russia's dogged intransigence and power-grabs represent a challenge that NATO and its allies do not really want to meet on a field of violent conflict.