Convulsing Eastern Ukraine

Most residents of eastern Ukraine where revolutionary fervour appears to have taken hold of a relatively limited segment of the 'pro-Russian', ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking population, viewing violence and threats all about them, have no wish to place themselves in harm's way. They haven't joined either side to protest against or for Kyiv, against or for Russia.

Most likely would support an agreement with Kyiv that would recognize somewhat greater autonomy for the Donbass region, but most definitely not association with Moscow.

Polls have been consistent in their conclusion that roughly 70 percent of residents  would prefer to remain with Kyiv, rather than have Moscow responsible for their futures. More emphatic political power within Ukraine, yes; secession in reflection of Russia absorbing Crimea, not at all.

But the pro-Russians are extreme in their violent declarations denouncing Kyiv and celebrating Moscow, and their threats against moderates are well-recognized.

There is always the example of the mayor of Kharkiv, 260 km north of Donetsk, Hennadiy Kernes, who waffled in his support of former President Viktor Yanukovych. Declaring himself kindly disposed to Russia, but unwilling in the final analysis, to see eastern Ukraine hive off toward Russia, he was the victim of an attempted assassination, shot in the back by unknown assailants whose identity most people could clearly guess at.

A Ukrainian soldier was killed, another injured in Donetsk when they inspected a homemade bomb. In Slavyansk, journalists are being 'detained' along with supporters of the Kyiv western-oriented government. But it is the capture of three Ukrainian military security personnel, their humiliation at being deprived of their trousers, their mouths bound with packing tape, heads and bodies bludgeoned that express the savagery of the Russian activists.

That, along with the detention of the now-seven military observers associated with the Organization for Security & Co-operation in Europe, draws a picture of the lawlessness and defiance of authority that the region is falling into. The thugs, dressed in camouflage fatigues and the obligatory, intimidating black masks, arm themselves with baseball bats and metal cudgels in the public arena.

On Monday a large demonstration in Donetsk with several thousand supporters of a unified Ukraine took place in a calm and orderly atmosphere. The people gathered there felt safe enough, removed from the presence of the Russian activists who were gathered two kilometres away in Lenin Square. The unarmed pro-Kyiv demonstrators waved Ukrainian flags and sang the national anthem.



They felt safe because present alongside them were also several busloads of riot police. Suddenly a swaggering mob of pro-Russian militants marching ten abreast raced into the presence of the peaceful protesters, flailing them with their cudgels and bats. The police  fired a few rounds of tear gas and several stun grenades at the several hundred pro-Russian men, young and middle-aged, with a scattering of women among them.

The police, there to guard the peaceful demonstrators soon disappeared, however, leaving the pro-Kyiv people to fend for themselves against "the Donetsk People's Republic" who clubbed anyone who hadn't managed to move quickly enough in retreat to save themselves from a brutal drubbing, getting their skulls cracked open by the raving militants.



The inability of the central government in Kyiv to exert control over the Donbass region is alarming to the residents who for the most part want nothing to do with the extremists' chaos-driven mandate delivered by Russia to foment fear and violence, and create the atmosphere, a la Crimea, for a referendum where the force of violent minority threats will succeed in mirroring the events that led to Crimea's annexation.



If the Kyiv government remains incapable of policing and bringing order to its territory, there is every reason to expect that Moscow will be more than willing to step in to fill the gap. Only Moscow's military manoeuvres to save Ukraine from its own ineptitude will not be for the greater benefit of bestowing legitimacy in the region on Kyiv, but for the Kremlin to blandly state it was required to manifest its presence in support of ethnic Russians in the region.

After mercilessly thrashing those peaceful Kyiv-biased protesters who became their victims, the Russian thugs retreated with victorious shouts of "Russ-i-ya!", back to their redoubt in Lenin Square.