A Paradigm Shift

"Russia's aggression in Ukraine has caused a paradigm shift. If there was any doubt of the relevance of NATO and the strength of the trans-Atlantic bond before now, the last few weeks have cleared that up and reinforced the need for our essential core tasks."
General Philip Breedlove, NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, right, meets with U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's supreme commander in Europe, in Ottawa May 5, 2014. (CBC)

"We are obviously concerned by the continuing escalation of violence in Ukraine, which to me very much appears to be clearly what I would call a slow-motion invasion on the part of the Putin regime."
Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Ottawa

The possibility that Ukraine faces another loss of its territory in the southwest with Odessa and parts of eastern Ukraine, on top of Russia's annexation of Crimea would be a catastrophic event. It would leave the country landlocked, blocked off from access to the Black Sea. Perhaps that is also a reflection of Russia having commandeered Ukraine's Black Sea fleet when it claimed possession of the Crimean coastline and all its valuable military infrastructure.

On Monday explosives and gunfire held central stage in and around Slavyansk with its population of 125,000 on tenterhooks of expectation over what happens next as the Ukrainian military faces off against the pro-Russian rebels. Government troops were battling about 800 pro-Russia forces armed with large-calibre weapons and mortars, according to Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. It is open to speculation where such heavy weapons might have come from to advantage the rebels.

Those same activists attended the funeral of Vyacheslav Markin, a regional member of parliament. His death, two days following the fire in the Odessa union building, from the burns he had sustained then has enraged those who had been involved in the riots between pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine groups that culminated in the building being set afire. Mr. Markin was popular among the pro-Russia contingent for his vocal disavowal of the central government. Activists have sworn to avenge his death.

Despite that the pro-Russians have taken occupation of key government buildings and police stations in over a dozen towns close to the Russian border, life in general appears calm, if nervously pursued. With the exception of Slavyansk where Ukrainian forces engaged in heavy fighting to roust several hundred organized separatists  with their direct or indirect support of weapons from Russia, people go about their normal activities, avoiding those sites where the opposition congregates.

Within the "People's Republic of Donetsk", apart from where checkpoints have been set up or where separatists have taken possession of government buildings, all seems peaceful enough. Restaurants and shops continue to offer services in the city of a million residents. Police still engage in their usual corrupt bribe-taking from motorists. Additional security guards haven't been installed at hotels packed with foreign journalists.

Buses and trains continue to run on time with the exception of Slavyansk. Flights from Kyiv, Istanbul, Frankfurt and London are clear to land at the Donetsk airport. The Kremlin stopped Ukrainian flights to Crimea even before its takeover, so flights from Moscow have been cancelled. The only places people avoid walking near are those public buildings where the separatists have ensconced themselves.

Though declared the capital of the People's Republic of Donetsk, Ukrainian flags still fly from schools and offices., though separatists claim to hold Donetsk. Candidates' campaign posters are posted and billboards hoisted in Ukrainian colours for the national presidential elections scheduled for May 25 have been left in place, though the separatists will not take part in the election process.

Under the purposeful calm of people anxious to go about their lives as though nothing is amiss, returning to routine and the assurance of normalcy, an undercurrent of anxiety seeps through the atmosphere. A pervasive helplessness at unfolding events, that some outside force is manipulating invades the thoughts of people wishing the turmoil, the violence, the social upheaval would just come to a screeching halt, as sudden as the appearance of the social-political rage that has disrupted their lives.