To Severely Sanction Or Not, That Is The Question

"We simply, as a world, cannot afford the risk of Europe going back to being a continent where people seize territory, where they make claims on other neighbouring countries, where the bigger military powers are prepared to invade their neighbours or carve off pieces."
"When you talk about Ukraine, they have obviously not been playing by the rules. We don't know what their intentions are. But we know two things: We are worried about their intentions. That they have not necessarily stopped here [the annexation of Crimea]."
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is welcomed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel as he arrives at the chancellery in Berlin, on Thursday, March 27, 2014. Photo: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

The Ukraine Defence Minister has stated a dozen of its servicemen have been abducted by Russian troops, their whereabouts unaccounted for. Included among them is Col. Yuliy Mamchur, a commander widely acclaimed in Ukraine when he defied the besieging pro-Russian forces, until he no longer could, when his base was stormed on the weekend.

Moscow officials have taken care to warn Kyiv it will have to pay more to receive Russian gas; the discount that Russia had promised Ukraine was linked to the Russian Black Sea Fleet's lease in Crimea. Since Russia has taken possession of Crimea, there is no need any longer to honour that promise. It is, of course, unfortunate for Ukraine that Russia has seized Ukraine's navy assets along with the ports.

Russia now has proud possession of the minesweeper Cherkessy. The Ukrainian navy has been reduced by 51 vessels, including its sole submarine. All of those ships now fly the Russian flag. Leaving Ukraine with ten ships to call their own; their military property has been sadly reduced. They represent the spoils of a swift and undeadly war of attrition; a wholesale ransacking of Ukrainian property; geography, real estate, ships, population. And military personnel.

And Russia is more than pleased to add contemptuous insult to injury. We take your possessions, you pay us more for the energy you so badly need. Russian polls show that Vladimir Putin's popularity within Russia has soared madly. Eastern Europe is transfixed by the events of recent weeks. Poland's ambassador to Canada warns that the security of the post-Cold War era ended with a painful thump with Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Ambassador Marcin Bosacki describes the political climate as "extremely dangerous", in the wake of President Putin speaking of correcting the errors of history. Ambassador Bosacki feels NATO should present a more vigorously determined, deterrent presence in Eastern Europe. Of the 62,000 U.S. troops in Europe, few are based in countries new to NATO; the military alliance should look to "strengthen its eastern flanks."

The international community has an obligation to "stop Russia where they are", according to Slawomir Debski, director of the Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding. Now that's a bit of nomenclature that has a wry sound to it. Warsaw and Canada, said Mr. Bosacki, have worked closely together throughout the Ukraine crisis, and are soon to reveal a joint set of initiatives to help Ukraine.

In Germany, businessmen seem more concerned over the economic pain they would suffer as a result of western sanctions. Politically Chancellor Angela Merkel is closer to Prime Minister Harper's implacable view that Russian aggression must be countered by the West taking strong, co-ordinated, sustained action to see that Moscow is punished for its intransigence over its insistence on controlling former Soviet satellites.

Germany is dependent for most of its oil and gas from Russia; it has forsworn nuclear energy. German exports to Russia of high-quality technical manufactured goods like machinery and automobiles make it extremely reluctant to upset the trade-and-economic applecart. As for ordinary Germans, a poll taken for Der Spiegel reveals that most people feel the West's response to Russia is appropriate.

Still leaving two out of three Germans opposed to economic sanctions against Russia. And the German economy is by far the strongest of the European Union. A slight majority, unwilling to counter discomfort and unsettling problems that sanctions will impose, feel "the West should simply accept Russia's annexation of Crimea."

It is, in fact, a reality, a fait accompli that nothing short of a war that no one would countenance. But it is not an achievement that should be accepted with good grace. The penalties should be exacted and the consequences fall where they may. There will be sacrifices to achieve the goal of the penalty, but the end result will be a felicitous one for Russia; diplomatic/political isolation, financial pain.