Elusive Solutions

Members of the Canadian Ukrainian community demonstrate on Parliament Hill. The Canadian government stands against the Russian incursion in Crimea ... Prime Minister Stephen Harper is travelling to Kyiv as a demonstration of support for Ukraine ... Fred Chertrand/The Canadian Press

Elusive Solutions

"Obviously we're not just tremendously concerned with the occupation and the potential annexation of Crimea into the Russian Federation, but we're concerned that it obviously may not stop there. So I think announcing that the prime minister will travel to Ukraine to confer with the new prime minister and his government sends an important signal that we will stand with the people of Ukraine."
"We have been unsuccessful to date at finding a diplomatic solution, a political solution to this issue. I think nonetheless that it is important that we give every effort in that regard. Obviously there are other options that we're already looking at."
Canada, Minister of Foreign Affairs, John Baird

The situation looks grim, and there is the very real potential for matters to become grimmer yet. Russia has parked thousands of its well-armed troops and military equipment on what most certainly is a war footing on the border with Ukraine. Its military has a distinct presence at Sevastopol, intimidating and threatening their Ukrainian military counterparts, closing down their military bases and freezing Ukrainian reaction.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's office has announced preparations for him to fly into Kyiv on March 22. The Crimean vote for independence from Ukraine will have taken place. And by then there will have resulted a more solid indication of what Russia plans to do over the surety that Crimea will be voting overwhelmingly to leave Ukraine and join Russia. This may or may not be what Russia wants to do; an independent Crimea solidly in Russia's camp, yes; not for Russia to absorb it into its borders.

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Security Council meeting on the situation in Ukraine. UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Unsurprisingly, Russia chose to veto the United Nations Security Council draft resolution  to withhold recognition of Crimea's Sunday vote for separation. It represents, after all, a referendum that is illegal under Ukraine's constitution, as well as having no legal status in international law. Canada has stated it has no intention of recognizing the vote, and nor will any other member of the G7, NATO or the European Union.

China chose to abstain rather than vote either way, maintaining its convention of voting alongside Russia.

On this issue, the Conservative government has the full support of the opposition parties in Parliament, a complete consensus of opinion. Liberal foreign affairs critic Marc Garneau stated his party's full support of the prime minister's Kyiv's visit; that it "sends a good message", both to Russia and Ukraine, in the midst of rising tensions. "When a head of state makes a trip like this, it shows how very, very serious we are here in Canada."

Foreign Affairs Minister Baird commented that Canada is consulting with its allies on their linked response to the situation, but he was "not optimistic" that a diplomatic or political solution will be readily found. Canada has embraced 1.2-million Canadians of Ukrainian descent, all of whom are hugely opposed to Russia's continuing influence over their native homeland.

In fact, Russians themselves appear to be opposed to Russia's belligerence in Crimea, with thousands of Moscovites protesting in the streets.

Protesters carry Ukrainian and Russian flags in Moscow, on March 15, 2014, during a rally against recent Russia’s move on Crimea. Around 50,000 people rallied today in central Moscow in protest at Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, a day before the Crimean peninsula is expected to vote on switching to Kremlin rule, an AFP team estimated.