The President Who Barked Wolf!

"We strongly support Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. We expect other nations to do the same."
Jay Carney, White House spokesman

"We believe that everybody now needs to step back and avoid any kind of provocations."
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

Pro-Russian protesters wave Russia's flag in front of Sevastopol's city hall: the council has made Russian citizen Aleksei Chaliy mayor. Photograph: Darko Vojinovic/AP

 

Another red line, but somewhat ambiguous, yet carrying the threat of that shadowy big stick? Uttering caution for the sake of saying something, anything at all? How will the Kremlin, and above all Vladimir Putin view such a statement in light of his previous blandishments toward his American counterpart whom he moulded like soft putty to agree to the Russian way of settling difficult matters like the Syrian onslaught on the Syrian civilian population?

It does help, to a significant degree that other world leaders have echoed Washington's wording. "The world will be watching", said David Cameron at a press conference with German chancellor Angela Merkel, clarifying that Britain and Germany, two not-inconsiderable authorities on the world stage of political upheaval "support a united and a democratic Ukraine and we support the aspirations of the Ukrainian people to live in a truly democratic society".

It is, in fact, nothing short of alarming for Ukrainians in Ukraine, let alone those living elsewhere, say for example, the over million Canadian Ukrainians, to view the situation where pro-Russian gunmen have occupied regional government and parliamentary buildings in Simferopol, the capital of the Crimea. That Russian flags have been raised over the buildings, while the regional assembly voted for a referendum on greater autonomy within Ukraine.

The situation where Ukraine's powerful, overpowering neighbour has launched military manoeuvres, claiming that they were previously arranged, and just happen to coincide with the upset in Ukraine, is nervous-making in the extreme. With 150,000 troops, 90 aircraft, over 120 helicopters and 880 tanks, the exercise appears hastily aggressive, and coincidentally threatening on the border of a rupturing country.

"The fighters have failed to hand in arms, they have not freed administrative buildings and they talk of their intentions to 'bring order' to all Ukrainian regions", said a statement from Russia's Foreign Ministry, speaking of the situation in Kyiv, not in the Crimea. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, spoke with John Kerry, affirming their mutual consternation over Ukrainian affairs.

Assuring Mr. Kerry that Russia's military exercises were um, incidental, having no relation to Ukraine.

Well, that's a relief. That news must not yet have reached Oleksander Turchynov, Ukraine's acting president, since he's warned that any attempt by Russian forces to leave their naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea, say to move on to Kyiv, would be viewed as an act of "military aggression". Won't he be embarrassed to learn that Russia plans no such thing, and is happy to have Ukrainians figure out all on their own what next to do to restore order and trust in the country?

Meanwhile, thousands of pro-Russian demonstrators have gathered in the Crimean capital for a huge outdoor public concert, listening to Second World War songs and chanting "Russia!", while armed men continue to control the building where the vote was taken by the Crimean assembly to hold a referendum. Gennady Moskal, an MP with Yulia Tymoshenko's Fatherland party claims the gunmen were rogue Berkut riot police.

Those are the special forces police who mutinied when they were ordered to disband. The Golden Eagles (Berkut) represented an elite police unit trained for riot control, using combat weapons, blamed for the worst of the violence against protesters in Kyiv. When they returned to Sevastopol they were greeted with great celebratory congratulations for a job well done in Kyiv by their fellow Crimeans.