Sunnily Optimistic on Afghanistan

"It's terrible, [Friday's Taliban assault in Kabul] but people have to put things into perspective. Most of what you read in the media is negative, but I have seen the ANSF (Afghanistan National Security Forces) grow, and gain confidence, and they are professionalizing themselves. Their leaders are better. Their capabilities as a security force to counter anything the Taliban can do are quite astonishing."
Maj.-Gen.Dean Milner, Canadian officer heading up NATO's Afghanistan military training mission

The Lebanese restaurant in Kabul that was attacked by the Taliban. Photo by AP

'Astonishing' is the word that some might use to describe the ability of the Taliban of whom Maj.-Gen. Milner describes the ability of Afghan's military to counter 'anything the Taliban can do' the fact that the security forces seem incapable of securing the very capital of the country where an well-executed and highly successful attack in a high-security zone killed 21 foreigners and Afghans having an evening meal in a local, popular-with-foreigners Afghan restaurant.

The plan was to use a suicide bomber at the well-fortified and privately-guarded entrance to the restaurant where the triple-steel protective door and the guards stationed outside gave a sense of security to those within. The Lebanese owner of the restaurant died with a rifle in his hands trying to defend his clients and his life-work. When the ghastly turmoil that erupted with the explosion of the bomb occurred, it gave opportunity to two AK-47-armed Taliban to enter the back of the restaurant, spraying everyone with bullets.

Now that's success. Where were the security forces? Thirteen foreigners and eight Afghans dead, most of them civilians. The three attackers died, but this is what they bargain for, seeking the glory of martyrdom. The others, the foreigners and the Afghans having a leisurely meal, anticipated quiet and a good meal and had no idea they would not live to see another dawn.

So much for security in Afghanistan with the presence of foreign military trainers working against time to pull a professional military out of a rag-tag semblance of order.

Those speaking in defence of ordinary Afghans point out that after last Friday's atrocity hundreds of young demonstrators marched outside the burned ruin of the Taverna du Liban restaurant on Sunday, laying wreaths of flowers and holding placards stating: "We Denounce Terrorism"; "We Stand Against Terrorism", and "We Will Win, Terrorism Will Lose". They most certainly hope so.

Why weren't thousands out? Is the majority diffident to the danger that lurks everywhere?

Apparently so, or alternately those looking in from the outside have an entirely wrong idea of the dangers involved in the complete withdrawal of foreign troops' presence, leaving Afghanistan, at the wishes of its President, Hamid Karzai, to its own devices.

The ninth annual national survey of Afghan opinion conducted by the Asian Foundation indicates the overwhelming majority of Afghans claim their lives are continuing to improve, leaving them cautiously optimistic about their future.

Polls demonstrate that 75% feel satisfied with their national government's performance, closely reflecting the 72% approval rating for the Afghan National Police, along with the 88% reporting confidence in the Afghan National Army. What do they think they know that no one else does? Yes, the Afghan National Police enrolment stands at 150,688, but the fly in that ointment is the annual attrition rate of 15.9%.

And while the troop strength of the Afghan National Army has doubled in the past four years to 286,588 personnel, a third of newly recruited soldiers drop out each and every year. Afghans' literacy rate is backward to the point where over 30,000 Afghan soldiers and more than 16,000Afghan police attend literacy classes. "This is going to take time. We're not there yet", said Maj.-Gen. Milner.

No indeed.

Hamid Karzai's presidential term ends with the presidential elections on April 5. He is counting on his successor to negotiate a bilateral security agreement with the United States. He has been holding out, pressing the Americans for direct negotiations with the Taliban, attempts that led nowhere in the past.

If Afghanistan is such a success story with the Afghan people investing such a high degree of confidence in their government, it is the government of Afghanistan not a foreign nation which should be involved in negotiations with the Taliban that will impact their future.

All the more so since without that signed agreement the NATO training mission involving military personnel from 36 NATO and non-NATO countries, inclusive of the U.S., Britain, Turkey, Belgium, Mongolia, El Salvador, Norway and Jordan, would come to a crashing end in December of 2014. Canada hauls out its remaining 100 soldiers in March.

It's seen as a hopeful sign that over half of the "insurgency" violence in the country last year took place in three only of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. Obviously the other 50% took place in he remaining 29 provinces. What does that prove in support of optimism for the future? 

"So", concluded Maj.-Gen. Milner, "there are problems. But people in Canada just don't see a lot of the good things that are happening, and I always come back to how the Afghans see it. So yes, I'm optimistic."

Tell that to the families of the two men, 49-year-old Peter McSheffrey of Ottawa and 43-year-old Martin Glazer of Gatineau, working temporarily in Afghanistan on an auditing contract for Canada's Department of Foreign Affairs, to ensure that not too much graft was taking place on Canada's dime; which is to say the millions in support that Canada is providing; $110 million annually the latest pledge through 2017.