What We Wish For

Sixty years ago Egypt's King Farouk went into exile, languishing without his fabled kingdom, ousted by the military, but still endowed with enough wealth to live a pharaonic life at the Cote d'Azur. Deprived of his throne he simply accommodated himself resignedly elsewhere to the life of one who had inherited the heritaged title, riches, land and human resources of the most populous Arab country in the Middle East.

What was there to grumble about? Times change. At that time Egypt was economically well off, relatively speaking with a higher standard of living than, for example, South Korea. In one of life's many contrarian turn-abouts, their positions are now reversed, with South Korea's vast entrepreneurial wealth, and Egypt's sad downfall with her economic engine of tourism and welcoming attitude to the outside world for trade and investment spectacularly failed.

Egypt may have been well off back then, but it still had its indigent population of those who could only dream of a time when they would share in the wealth of the world through their country's portion of its resources. Egypt historically developed an irrigation system from the floodwaters of the Nile to enable its farmers to grow ample crops to feed the country with the dignity of self-preservation, and to trade the surplus.

Distribution of income through government sources where subsidies on food and cooking oil represent the norm marks modern Egypt as one taking responsibility for all its peoples' welfare. The population is growing at a steady 2% annually, at 3 children per family. Income from the export of oil has fallen, petrochemicals as an export resource diminishing. Natural gas brings in a modest income, but Egyptians balk at their government selling LNG to Israel, a ready market.

The economy is currently in such dire straits that even income from shipping through the Suez Canal is dropping with less oil passing through from Gulf oil-producers than previously. Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat. It imports 40% of its food overall and 60% of its wheat. The World Bank has informed Egypt it must lower its subsidies to help balance its deficit. The country was overspending revenues of $46.82 billion by expenditures of $64.82 billion in 2009.

It has a higher debt level by far at 80.5% of GDP than most other African and Arab nations, according to the CIA World Fact Book. Egypt's standard of living is assessed at roughly $6,000 per capita, compared to flourishing South Korea's $30,000. Through the 60 years that Egypt's military has been behind the figures governing as tyrants the generation and growth of national income appears to have been beyond the capabilities it possesses.

In Egypt, the military, like the military of China, Iran and Russia, controls large portions of industry. If the country's fortunes wane, that pain extends to their senior military who benefit personally from a strong economy. The army is well regulated, orderly, disciplined and trusted by the people of Egypt. The only adversary that could latterly claim to be orderly, disciplined and trusted by a portion of the people was the Muslim Brotherhood.

The military has no wish to govern the country. In recognition of the disciplined, regimented order of the Brotherhood, it must have seemed possible that they had the means through fresh ideas, and commitment to generate a good measure of economic growth. At the very least, to create economic institutions that would result in a way forward for the country's economy; perhaps slowly and grindingly at first, but noticeably and hopefully.

That didn't happen. But the well-over 50% of the Egyptian voters who felt that the Brotherhood, whose organization while in opposition to the governing president and military, proved adept at providing succour and aid to those in need, might be capable of transforming that capability and organization to a national level and eventually haul the country into a gradual sphere of prosperity where employment and national income would thrive had faith in their potential.

A year isn't nearly enough time to even begin to transform an economy of a large geographic area with over 80-million people. But it was enough time to assess the failure of the government in bringing violent crime to a hiccoughing halt, to stem the stubborn outward flow of foreign investment, to reassure minority groups that their presence would be safeguarded, to counter violent Islamism in the Sinai, and to make more favourable trade deals to benefit the country.

It did, however, have the time to bring in a controversial new constitution resented by a large portion of the people who voted in a democratic election and then regretted the vote they cast. People who saw creeping Islamism enter, and regime cronyism giving plum governing positions to those with questionable pasts, and who revolted against President Morsi's attempt to gather unto himself overwhelming constitutional powers.

Those who voted for the Muslim Brotherhood trusted them, and the overwhelming numbers of those who still trust them have not been disappointed in their performance to the extent that the secular-minded, socialist-oriented, the Christians and those yearning for equality under true democratic rule, obviously did. Their protests waxed and waned, and then grew again to proportions that Mohammed Morsi addressed as casually as others in their Arab Spring protests did, before they were overwhelmed beyond redemption.

Egyptians expressed a strong desire for a kind of life well beyond what they were experiencing in their vast country of dwindling opportunities for advancement. They took it upon themselves to indicate their frustrated rejection by the only means available to them -- a reiteration of the mass protests that removed former President Hosni Mubarak from his seat of 30-year-power, when he administered the affairs of the country in a superior manner to the Brotherhood -- in numbers that convinced the military it was time to end the experiment.