Some Time, Same Place

"Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. The transfer of such weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region.
"If Syrian president Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate."
Unnamed senior Israeli official

There is, in fact, little option but for Israel to react. Not to do so, and forcefully, in the rough neighbourhood the state inhabits, is to leave the impression that they are weak and incapable of fending for themselves. Which would represent, to the minds monitoring the situation -- and they always are, always on the lookout for indications that Israel is faltering in its resolve to maintain its presence and its integrity -- that the country is ripe for fresh attack and invasion.

Any sign of potential weakness is a signal to move the agenda forward on the destruction-of-the-intruder file. Syria and its major regional supporter, Iran, along with their militia proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, all of whom have the goal of Israel's annihilation uppermost in mind, seek any kind of initiative for presumed advantage they can identify and take possession of to heighten their prospects. And in this area they have the willing aid of Russia.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent visit to Socchi to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin was not a salubrious event that gained anything at all for Israel. What the visit did was enable President Putin to confront President Netanyahu directly with his displeasure over the destruction of Russian-supplied munitions through Israel's several raids on Syria's military posts and its chemicals experimental laboratories.

Which came with a direct and distinctly disturbing warning that should Israel seek to repeat the (self-protective) adventure it would be taken as a clear sign of war impending, and one that would be responded to. Not only by Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, but by Russia as well, in some degree. That's fairly unequivocal. Despite which, undaunted, given the stakes for the country, the response from Israel was that nothing would deter it from continuing to launch pre-emptive attacks to destroy any replacement arms.

There is no other option for Israel. The need to keep high-powered, more destructive rockets out of the hands of terrorist group Hezbollah is of the highest order of emergencies, second only to keeping nuclear arms out of Iran's grasp. It has become evident that the more technologically-advanced long-range missiles that Israel was hoping to persuade Russia to keep out of Syrian hands have already been delivered. The only saving grace being that neither Syria nor Hezbollah yet have the expertise to use them properly.

Training will be required and that will offer space and time to respond. Clearly, if Israel thought it had gained some thrust with Russia by signing off on a very impressive dual-gain contract for Russia to help exploit the massive gasfields recently discovered off the Israeli coastline, whose profitable venture would bring Russia closer to Israel's side, this was a mistaken impression. Israeli intelligence understands that Russia is concerned with its own security due to Islamist activity within the country.

But its support for Islamist activities within the Middle East geared to the destruction of Israel, is a game that threatens to burn Russia's hands in the final analysis. In the event, any conflict that is undertaken by necessity by the State of Israel to secure its safety in the geography -- where it must protect itself from a combined murderous attack by Iran, Syria and Hezbollah as unlikely as it seems at the present time, since those three are integrally occupied with the protection of Syria from Sunni Islamists seeking to overturn Shia rule -- represents a proxy war between Russia and the United States.

The United States under this more cautious administration has no wish to embroil itself further in Middle East conflicts. These conflicts are never-ending, never-conclusive, never rewarding and endlessly costly. But they also represent critical events which the sole remaining world power, despite the infringements by China and Russia both seeking to capture and re-capture that recognition for themselves, must respond to.