Invasion of Syria

"Regarding my confidence about victory, had we not had this confidence, we wouldn't have been able to fight in this battle for two years, facing an international attack.
"All what we have agreed on with Russia will be implemented and some of it has been implemented recently."
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

"The talk about the international conference and a political solution to the situation in Syria has no meaning in light of the massacres that are taking place."
Khalid Saleh, Opposition coalition spokesman

President Assad is feeling increasingly certain of himself again; that he will regain control and the rebel militias will be vanquished, the opposition to his continued rule put to rest. The unconditional involvement of Hezbollah has had that effect on him. All the demoralizing defections, the success of the rebels in planting bombs in 'secure' areas, assassinating key regime figures and weakening the strength of the regime through continued confrontations the military has not always been successful in repelling, have now been reversed.

The regime is retaking ground it had been forced to surrender to the Free Syrian Army. That will show the Arab League just how wrong they've been in backing the wrong horse, in welcoming the Opposition Coalition as the formal representation of Syria to the Arab League, seating them where he should be, an offensively intolerable move to shun him and  his regime, one that will return to bite them, as is now being demonstrated.

Of course it is not only Hezbollah's involvement by any means that has bolstered President Assad's confidence. That's simply one element, an important one, but then there's the role that Russia is playing in this proxy war between east and west, Russia and the United States, with Russia-Iran-Syria (Shia Hezbollah) on the one hand and the U.S.-NATO-Arab League (Sunni Islamists) on the other.

The sanctimonious accusations by the UN's human rights representatives and the opposition of Turkey will all be set in their proper perspective.

Assad will prevail, for there is the backing of Iran, and of Russia, two powerful allies. And China's position on the Security Council is non-interference with the affairs of other countries lest, heaven forfend, any might venture to interfere in China's harmonious affairs.

It's a fairly amusing situation to have the U.S. and Israel plead with Russia to cancel the S-300 missile contract. To see their consternation, to watch them grovel with pleading demanding, coercive diplomatic overtures only to have Putin spurn them sternly; reminding them high-mindedly; a deal is a deal; honour intact.

Gary Clement/National Post

 

Israel has much to be concerned with relating to the S-300s, as does the United States. A no-fly zone is still a consideration. Difficult to maintain if Syria is in possession of such powerful missiles with the capacity to shoot down warplanes and incoming missiles alike -- and return fire as well with greater accuracy and strength. If push comes to shove Israel won't be restrained from conducting new missions to destroy such weapons, even with the presence of Russian expert advisers.

Russia, of course, is counting on the presence of Russian experts to be a deterrent to any Israeli action, but then it isn't Russia that faces an existential threat with such weapons in the hands of the Syrians. Any future plans the IDF may have for flyovers to attack Iran's bunkered nuclear infrastructures will become vastly more complicated and fraught with the danger of exposure. 

 

As for the peace talks being promoted for Geneva in June by the Americans and the Russians, Syria feels confident enough with Russia backing al-Assad's continuance as president to attend, but the Syrian National Coalition refuses to attend while Qusair continues to be battered.

"The talk about the international conference and a political solution to the situation in Syria has no meaning in light of the massacres that are taking place", said coalition spokesman Khalid Saleh. Nor would his group support international peace efforts as long as Syria is being invaded by Iran and Hezbollah, he emphasized.