Afghanistan's Future

There was plenty of company for Canada among 69 other countries meeting in Tokyo for an aid conference, and reaching the conclusion that altogether almost $18 billion in aid will be provided to ensure that Afghanistan does not fail.  NATO and ISAF troops and international diplomats may be preparing to leave Afghanistan to its own devices and the safety and security provided by its very own military and national police, but we're still putting our money where our mouths practise assurances.

Two years' departure is not all that close on the horizon for conflict-weary foreign troops, more than willing to depart Afghanistan.  Helping throughout the countdown period to train Afghanistan in the art of self-help, continuing to build civil infrastructure and provide instruction on how a democracy ideally operates.  Teaching how to administer a country, provide security, build trust, continue to open medical clinics and schools.

There does come a time, after all, when a dozen years of sacrifice are deemed sufficient unto the purpose.  The 70 governments involved in bolstering Afghanistan's future through assurances that treasury will continue to be expended there, somehow missed the tedious necessity to extract a promise to bank on that social justice issues will be seriously tackled and women's rights will not backtrack.

But the government of Hamid Karzai did promise that it would improve human rights, take action against the prevalence of money laundering, drug trafficking, and tackle anti-corruption measures, and begin to be transparent about government business and the salaries of the government elite.  And, of course, the formula to make everyone smile: free and fair elections.

So, there it is, approximately $4.5-billion a year for the next four years; not quite the $6-billion that Hamid Karzai and his central bank insisted would be needed at minimum, but a sizeable commitment, following hard on the billions already showered on the country and for which adequate bookkeeping has been hard to come by.

Canada has agreed to an additional $227 million in development aid from 2014 to 2017, that aid earmarked to empower women and girls for educational opportunities, meeting human rights needs and the delivery of humanitarian assistance.  Topping off the $300 million that Canada has already pledged for 2011 to 2014.

Afghanistan has been placed on notice that the international community that continues to be so generous has certain expectations, and remains concerned over how the funding they have promised will be used.   

"That needs to be done because the flows are substantial and we know there have been shortcomings not necessarily relating to Canadian spending, but certainly relating to some of the assistance that has come to Afghanistan."  Conservative MP Chris Alexander (former Ambassador to Afghanistan)

"But if you read this declaration, it's very clear what areas the international community is requiring the Afghan government to take action on.  One is governance. Two is a more serious fight against corruption.  Our impression to date is literally that President Karzai and his team have not been serious on this issue, and that has to end."

The $35-billion that international donors have provided between 2001 and 2010 to Afghanistan has never been adequately accounted for.  Despite that funding the country is still mired in poverty.  How much has been siphoned off by government, by the bureaucracy, by various elements of those in authority will never be known.

Meanwhile, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has pledged that he would prove his government is serious and will do so by stamping out its heritage of corruption.  "This is a fragile conflict state.  Four years is a very short time for a country to be able to build stable and competent institutions", advised World Bank managing director Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

On the other hand, the international community has immersed itself over a ten-year-period not only in aiding and assisting the country in implementing a new direction and policies, but in building the seeds of the needed infrastructure and the administrative expertise that should go with it.  In that sense, Afghanistan certain has had a considerable leg up.

Afghanistan has a good geographic share of natural resources, minerals and energy resources to be extracted, and has already made agreements with countries like China to help it build the infrastructure it needs in mining and extraction.  China and Afghanistan both stand to gain hugely from these resources.

What remains to be seen past 2015 is how, when and where the Taliban will fit into the future scenario.