Internal/External Influences

New Delhi wishes to be declared exempt from U.S.-inspired financial sanctions.  To do so, India must continue to cut back on its reliance on Iranian oil imports to supply its vast and growing energy needs.  And India has growing energy needs, as its manufacturing base and growing economy continue to expand.  While India chafes at the prospect of being seen to cater to American demands, the demands of its economy also loom large.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited India to continue to press the country's administration on the need to reduce its Iran-sourced oil reliance.  As it happens, her entourage coincided with another one from the very country in debate.  A large Iranian trade delegation was also in Delhi for the purpose of discussing the manner in which India and Iran could trade using a rupee mechanism to bypass sanctions.

India's first focus is to look after its strategic interests as the second-fastest growing economy in the region, after China.  "We think India, as a country that understands the importance of trying to use diplomacy to try to resolve these difficult threats, is certainly working toward lowering their purchase of Iranian oil", Ms. Clinton claimed approvingly, speaking at a Calcutta meeting.

Sanctions can shut out importers of Iranian oil from the U.S. financial system should they not make significant and ongoing cutbacks to their oil purchases by the end of June.  "We commend the steps that they have taken thus far.  We hope they will do even more."  India and China (Iran's largest crude importer) remain at risk for those financial sanctions.

It is not as though there are not alternate sources of energy.  Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other Gulf oil producers have made a point of offering to supply additional crude to the market to ensure there is an offset to the loss of supply from Iran. There is no love lost between the Sunni Arab States and Shia Iran; the former fear the latter, the latter loathe the former.

"If there were not the ability for India to go into the market and meet its needs, we would understand that.  But we believe there is adequate supply and that there are ways for India to continue to meet their energy requirements."

But then, the issue doesn't quite conclude with that alone.  For India has a quite large Muslim population; well over 179-million, second only to Muslim-majority Indonesia.  And Muslims are agitating for a greater representation in government.  Mind, 179-million sounds like a lot, and it is, but India has a population second only to China, of about 1.2-billion and growing.

The issue of Iranian oil is complicated by the fact that hundreds of prominent Muslim-Indian clerics are demanding that India must focus on improving relations with the Palestinian Authority, Iran and Syria.  Kalbe Jawwad, a cleric and member of the All-India Muslim Personal Law Board states there has been a "flood of terror attacks in India", since the establishment of the Israeli embassy in the country.

Those terror attacks, needless to say, emanate not from the Jewish State, but from another majority Muslim state, right next door.  Pakistan's enduring loathing of India is well enough recognized, and the deadly attacks that have taken place in India are of Pakistani origin, inclusive of the Mumbai attack.

But Indian Muslim clerics demand that India break off diplomatic ties with Israel. Those Shi'ite Muslim clerics also call for the closing down of India's embassy in the United States.  According to the clerics the United States and Israel represent the "biggest sponsors" of international terrorism.

India's Congress-led union government has also been accused of "defaming the Muslim community as a whole".  A test for India to garner approval from the clerics would be greater privileges for the Muslim community.


That's where it starts, but not where it ends.