Jane's Diagnosis

Janes may know their military hardware like no other celebrated and respected think tank, and their intimate data-collection is prized by those who take the integrity of their information as sound, but when it comes to their understanding and interpretation of primitive tribal and religion-inspired hatred of the alien influences in their geographic sphere, they may be somewhat lacking.

"Sources in the movement told Jane's in December that Hamas is downgrading its ties with Syria and Iran, forging new relationships with Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, and perhaps most significantly of all, renouncing armed resistance to Israel and moving to a policy of non-violent resistance."

This confident assertion, forecasting a different kind of future - and presumably more attuned to success - confrontation between the State of Israel and its surrounding, historically hostile-to-its-presence neighbours, may sound plausible to Jane's, but it bears little resemblance to antecedent events where Hamas's intransigent and fervent determination to destroy Israel has been witnessed in action.

While it is true that there has always been suspicion between Islamic sects, what brought Sunni Hamas, a creature given birth by the Muslim Brotherhood, to companions-in-arms status with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran was their virulent hatred of Israel. Each had their plans to annihilate Israel, and the corresponding encouragement, weapons distribution and economic assistance that filtered from Iran to Hamas consolidated their association.

Hamas has found it a bitter pill to swallow that Hezbollah has actively assisted Syria in its violent bid to shut down ongoing dissent from Sunni Syrians at the hands of the regime's Allawite-Shia government; a situation that has led to a cooling of relations. It is difficult for Hamas to remain close to Bashar al-Assad whose tyrannical response to the Sunni Syrian protests has been to order his military to attack civilians.

The Hamas elite, fearful of being successfully targeted for assassination by Mossad, had long sought safe haven in Damascus - and have now settled themselves elsewhere, finding welcome in Cairo and returning to Jordan and Gaza. Iran, in turn, angered by Hamas's lack of support for Syria, has cut off its funding.

But Hamas needn't unduly concern itself with that, since alternate funding is always available to them through contacts in Lebanon and Colombia leading to cocaine and money-laundering profits. Iran's investment in having the Republican Guard train Hamas terrorists, in sharing intelligence reflects the past, not the present. But there are some things that will not change.

Egypt's and Turkey's anxiety to have Hamas and Fatah finally breach their gap in working together for a common purpose, by having Hamas agree to setting aside its violence-dedicated agenda and accepting one focusing on 'civil disobedience' and the successes seen in public relations on the international scene, may have gained agreement to some degree, but it will never pacify Hamas.

"We affirm that armed resistance is our strategic option and the only way to liberate our land, from the [Mediterranean] sea to the river [Jordan]. God willing, Hamas will lead the people ... to the uprising until we liberate Palestine, all of Palestine." Ismail Haniyah, Gazan Prime Minister; December 15 celebratory rally in Gaza on Hamas founding.

To date, Hamas's record of achievement in that respect hasn't been too triumphant, but they feel it to be a matter of huge celebration, which they did, just that, this past week in celebration of their 24th year of existence as a force to be reckoned with. Whose constitution states clearly, explicitly, the destruction of Israel is what they aspire to succeed in. Those who are martyred in the process warmly welcomed in Paradise.

The statistics: 11,093 rockets fired into southern Israel; 1,117 armed attacks, 87 suicide bombings,1,365 Israelis killed,1,848 Hamas "martyrs".