United States' Little Brother

On his way to visiting Canada for a writers' festival in Toronto, historian and Harvard professor Niall Ferguson warns: "There will be more friction between China and the U.S. in the next 10 or 15 years and Canada will find itself in the middle if that becomes a rather fraught relationship. Imagine if either the United States or China said to Canada, 'You have to choose'.

Imagine, indeed. Well, in a sense, it's happened. Hasn't it? Aside from a contiguous border and a long history of peaceful relations, upset now and again by Big Neighbour shrugging indifferently at Little Neighbour, what's the most powerful incentive for countries to support one another aside from the primary mutual interest of defence? Why yes, trade, of course.

And bilateral trade between Canada and the U.S. is robust, all the more so through the two free trade agreements signed; the first bilaterally, the second trilaterally, with Mexico. Of total U.S. trade with foreign markets, Canada is number one representing 16.5%. If that's not impressive enough, how does $1.5-billion crossing the border each day sound?

So the relationship is one of neighbourly friendliness bound by the two countries' economies overlapping with plenty of large production facilities intertwined between the two. And the United States imports more of its energy from Canada now than from the Gulf States.

And could secure a whole lot more, but for the clout of environmental groups in the U.S. impeding the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline project. "Dirty" oilsands extraction which is steadily meeting environmental standards, still labelled by Americans who are the world's number one oil consumers as detrimental. But not Saudi 'clean' oil.

So if Canada's overtures directly from Prime Minister to President, and a series of environmental assessments giving the all-clear haven't succeeded because of the complication of an approaching election, production won't necessarily stop altogether. It will be sold to the next highest bidder, and the obvious customer is in the East.

"The decision to delay it [Keystone] that long is actually quite a crucial decision. I'm not sure this project would survive that kind of delay. It may mean that we may have to move quickly to ensure that we can export our oil to Asia through British Columbia." Canadian finance Minister Jim Flaherty

The simple fact is the awkward decision to delay by the State Department and to consider the possible benefits of re-routing the planned pipeline route meant to carry up to 830,000 barrels of oil daily from northern Alberta to Texas refineries could have the effect of a postponement lasting a year to eighteen months, even longer.

The pipeline debacle doesn't represent the only trade irritant between the two countries. A decade-long concern by the United States about secure borders has stiffened the previously-casual borders between the two countries to the extent where the free flow of trucking and trade has been seriously impeded. Security for the U.S. is vital. Trade for Canada is also vital.

Professor Niall Ferguson, coming to Toronto to flog his newly-published book, Civilization: The Wet and the Rest, speaks of China's ruthless determination and its lust for the resources it needs to support its immense production machine and its upward creeping GDP.

"It's not as though Canada needs to sell its assets, so I don't see the need for a major realignment of its position as the United States' little brother." Well, his perspective is aligned with the well-being of Washington. Aside from which it makes common sense to maintain our bonds between the two countries. But a need he doesn't 'see' may not be shared by decision-makers in Ottawa.

He's right in one respect. When he speaks of the dangers inherent in China possibly becoming aggressively irritated with what might well become a situation of stand-off in power and prestige and wealth between China and the United States. A cyber war in which China lets loose all its rogue hackers to do their best to create a chaotic end-run would impact every facet of life for its target.

Many countries of the world have already experienced a little taste of what it's like to see their key government departments infiltrated through online worms and viruses which have on occasion shut down critical operations and could, if directed to do so, destroy and pillage.

"Any obvious future war between China and the United States will happen in cyberspace. It won't happen in the South China Sea. There has to be some serious investment in that area, because China has achieved parity already. It's really scary how level the contest is and how hot the war is. There is a lot of cyber attacking going on."