So, Mr. Putin, How's Your 'Special Military Operation' Faring?

"Putin has the view that by summer the situation in Europe will change and support for Ukraine will fall away."

"This gives the Kremlin the motivation to continue its brazen attacks."

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, exiled London opposition figure

 

"We will take the path of escalation [to deter Europe]. As well as strikes on Ukraine to take full advantage of the lack of missile defence." 

"[Efforts to restart peace talks were going] nowhere." 

Unnamed Russian official

 

"[Moscow was stepping up an aggressive] shadow war [against Germany to undermine its support for Kyiv]."

"Russia is putting us to the test and closely watching how we handle this situation."

"From the perspective of the Kremlin leadership, any sign of wavering invites them to further increase the pressure on Germany."

"We have to stand up to that."

German Federal Intelligence Service chief Martin Jaeger 

 

"Look at what's happening with the economy."

"Look at what's happening to social policy, with the living standards of citizens of the biggest European states."

"In these conditions they have to ... switch the attention of their citizens from internal problems to problems of an external nature."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

The Russian leader has set out his demands: Europe must bend the knee, or the war will go on and on and on. Center for European Policy Analysis

Europe has its growing problems that must be dealt with. That's the Europe that has been solidly behind Ukraine in its existential counteroffensive against Vladimir Putin's aspirational territorial goals. There is political upheaval in Germany, and France is faced with escalating violent student riots, and Britain seems increasingly politically unstable to name but a few. All of which lead the Russian president to believe that playing his cards right will result in the fatigue that is growing among Kyiv's supporters coming to a crisis level where they can no longer offer the munitions and the funding they've been doling out as generously as they can, over the past four years.

 

Waging war is never cheap, and Russia's own economy is struggling with the international sanctions that have dampened its economy; a yawning budget deficit must be met with some manner of solution; war funding on borrowed time and burdening future generations call for a scheme that can undermine the solidarity that Europe has shown toward Ukraine allowing it to fend off Russian attacks and to successfully mount their own within Russia. 

 

With the Russian military striking at Ukraine's civilian infrastructure; schools, power plants and bridges with their jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles, Mr. Putin feels in striking distance of his goal -- if he can only demoralize the Ukrainian public sufficiently, and with them the European public wearying of supporting beleaguered Ukraine. Russia's war-weary citizens, insecure themselves never knowing when a Ukrainian drone will strike even in Moscow, and the waning economy does not so much perturb Putin that he feels any need to curtail his ambitions, certain as he is that he is within striking distance of his goal.

 

Irritatingly, despite the Trump administration's lack of interest in supporting Ukraine, bolstering Moscow's own determination to proceed as charted, German Chancellor Friedrich Merez, visiting Kyiv unexpectedly, announced another $1.5 billion in funding aid to Ukraine. With the far-right Alternative for Germany opposing aid for Ukraine breathing down his neck, his own political future is uncertain.  "Promising further billions in German taxpayer money that is missing from the pension and health insurance funds, while Germany is mired in its worst energy crisis. It's all too much to fathom", wrote Alternative for Germany's co-leader Alice Weidel, in her criticism of Germany's leader.  

"Meanwhile, there is little for Moscow to celebrate on the battlefield. Ukraine has regained the upper hand in drone warfare, inflicting more fatalities on Russian forces. At the same time, recruitment of new soldiers is likely slowing, as even rising contract-signing bonuses may no longer tempt the shrinking pool of po    tential volunteers. As a result, Russia is beginning to struggle to replace its battlefield losses." 

"Ukraine also faces personnel shortages but has nonetheless managed to stabilise the front line, seize the initiative in some areas (such as around Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region) and will now have the resources to strengthen its defences thanks to major new financial assistance from the EU."

Ondrej Ditrych, European Union Institute for Defence Studies  

Now, post-'election' and firmly back in his throne for another 30-or-some-odd years, Putin having spoken of returning to talks post-election, now claims that during the election, Ukraine's drone attacks were responsible for cancelling prospects for any new ceasefire talks. Moscow's actions, said Merz, signalled "Russia's desperation in the face of its unsuccessful war in Ukraine". Once again threatening attacks on Europe and nuclear warnings according to some analysts, signals Moscow's desperation, with its finances under strain. 

 

Claiming a week ago, spurred by a British documentary series that depicts a fictional war game exercise, that it had information that NATO was preparing an "air and naval blockade" of Kaliningrad, the Russian Foreign Ministry gave warning to the western alliance that his country was "prepared to respond to any efforts to isolate its Baltic enclave with all its arsenal, including nuclear weapons". In response, NATO accused Moscow of "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric". 

 

The Belgian Defence Minister predicted "a dark winter ahead", while Denmark's defence intelligence service gave warning of "a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries on its border in the coming months". Russia's hybrid attacks in its low-decibel shadow war against Ukraine's European friends and neighbours have made them all nervous, particularly the Baltics. 

"[Putin is counting on] crises mounting."

"And that the current leaders who are seen as anti-Russian and inadequate just won't be able to cope."

"[The Kremlin is operating on] the understanding that there are different forces in Europe, and that there are those who don't want the situation to escalate to nuclear confrontation."

"[Moscow's policy on Europe has become] schizophrenic. Putin is signalling that there is an official and unofficial line that we don't want to go to war with Europe [while warning that] we have nuclear weapons if you will continue arming Ukraine and build around us all kinds of military infrastructure and threaten Kaliningrd and so on." 

"[But all Putin really wants, is for Europe to become] more pragmatic [and follow the path taken by U.S. President Donald Trump]."

Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow, Carnegie Eurasia Russia Center 

Russia’s economy is not yet collapsing. Nor is its military campaign against Ukraine. But the Kremlin is mortgaging the country’s future as underlying structural weaknesses in the economy begin to emerge. European Union Institute for Security Studies