Upping The Ante

"[The doctrine change is unsurprising and] more of the same irresponsible rhetoric from Russia."

"Observing no changes to Russia's nuclear posture, we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture or doctrine in response to Russia's statements today."

White House National Security Council

 

"The big picture is that Russia is lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a possible conventional attack." 

Alexander Graef, senior researcher, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, University of Hamburg

 

"We will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia and we will react accordingly." 

Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov

 

"Now the danger of a direct armed clash between nuclear powers cannot be underestimated, what is happening has no analogues in the past, we are moving through unexplored military and political territory."

Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister  

"Nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies." 

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia November 18, 2024. Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via REUTERS /File Photo

The threshold for Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons has been formally lowered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. A move that followed the Biden White House decision to allow Ukraine to strike targets inside Russian territory with the use of newly-supplied U.S. longer-range missiles. The chess game played between Moscow and Washington has reached yet another level of threat. 

 

This change in Russian doctrine gives Russia the potential to launch a nuclear response even in the event of a conventional attack on Russia by any nation supported by a nuclear power.

 

Ukraine fired six American-produced ATACMS missiles at a military facility in Russia's Bryansk region bordering Ukraine early on Tuesday. Russia's Defence Ministry claims its air defences shot five of the missiles down while damaging another of the missiles, while the Ukrainian military stated that the  strike succeeded in hitting a Russian ammunition depot.

The changed doctrine supports a possible nuclear response by Russia to just such a conventional strike, formulated at the same time to avoid a firm resolve for the use of nuclear weapons, leaving Putin's options flexible. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, placed emphasis on the fact that the strike on Bryansk would only have been possible with U.S. military experts' involvement. 

 

Which by implication brings the U.S. in direct conflict with Russia. According to Lavrov, the attack marked a "qualitatively new phase of Western war against Russia". A situation to which Moscow is prepared to "respond accordingly". 

 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded in the affirmative when he was questioned whether a Ukrainian attack with longer-range U.S. missiles could trigger a nuclear response. He emphasized the doctrine's provision of an open door after a conventional strike raising critical threats for the "sovereignty and territorial integrity" of Russia and Belarus, its ally.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking in Kyiv on the 1,000th day of war, says Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to destroy Ukraine and 'make chaos in the world.'

 

President Putin had warned the U.S. and NATO allies on previous occasions that giving Ukraine permission to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons capable of hitting Russian territory would result in Russia and NATO being in direct conflict; the potential for World War III. An official in the Biden administration stated that the White House views the rhetoric emanating from the Kremlin as "irresponsible", noting that the arrival of thousands of North Korean soldiers taking part in combat operations against Ukraine was in and of itself a major escalation demanding a response.

In short, the updated doctrine claims any attack against Russia by a non-nuclear power with the "anticipation or support of a nuclear power" would be viewed as a "joint attack on the Russian Federation". Any massive aerial attack on Russia, therefore, could trigger a nuclear response, while still avoiding firm commitment in mention of the "uncertainty of scale, time and place of possible use of nuclear deterrent".

Finally, the document makes note that aggression carried out against Russia by a member of a military bloc or coalition is viewed as "an aggression by the entire bloc", referencing NATO. Nuclear weapons, it spells out, could be used in case of a massive air attack involving ballistic and cruise missiles, aircraft, drones and other flying vehicles.

 

After confirming Ukraine struck Russian territory using long-range missiles provided by the U.S., the Kremlin announced it was lowering its threshold for using nuclear weapons. Still from video