Poland's Military Dilemma

"Of course, we would like to spend it on hospitals, education, on the development of our social support."

"The reality is different. We are forced to spend this four percent of GDP on defence because we are facing the biggest threat in Europe since the Second World War."

"Do we really believe that, in a confrontation with the West, Poland is the only target of operations lke this [Moscow's crosshairs]."

Jacek Siewiera, head, Polish national security bureau

 

"Russia's concern is the unity of NATO and that is going to be the first objective, to dissolve the unity."

"And as soon as they calculate that the attack on one member of the alliance will lead them there [to disunity], they will definitely do that [attack Poland]."

"I believe that one day the public will realize how important and crucial it was that the NATO alliance reacted in unity, and very fast for the attacks on Ukraine."

"I can assure  you that the people who are dealing with national security and defence in Russia, they are aware what this sign actually meant."

General Wieslaw Kukula, commander, Polish armed forces

Belarusian mechanical brigade units during their training with Wagner instructors in a recent military TV broadcast. Oleg Nekalo / VoenTV

 

While Ukraine is coping with responding militarily, going from defense to offense, against a widespread, destructive Russian invasion which aims to capture as much of Ukraine as it can manage for inclusion in Russian geographic territory for an even greater Greater Russia, Poland nervously watches its own borders. Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles hae  found their way to Polish soil. The United States has moved 10,000 American troops to Poland.

 

The ammunition, tanks and support that sympathetic Western nations through NATO, and Poland's near neighbours have provided it in its response to the Russian invasion move toward U kraine through Polish airports and across Polish roads and railways. A Russian spy ring earlier this year was uncovered operating within Poland, by its intelligence services resulting in two Russians being arrested for posting leaflets inviting people to join the Wagner Group Russia's private military.

 

Belarus, in support of Russia, has flown migrants from the Middle East, directing them to cross into Poland an an effort to destabilize the country. The head of Poland's national security bureau clarifies that Russia is targeting Poland, but won't stop at Poland. Jacek Siewiera believes that every NATO country is being considered by Moscow as a potential victim. A former military doctor, Siewiera stated tht Poland cannot afford not to be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

As a result, the country has increased military spending dramatically, with plans to continue with more troops and greater military capabilities with an aim to bring its army to 300000 soldiers in ten years' time, from the current total of 179,000. Artillery systems, tanks and fighter jets have been brought in with plans to continue adding to its armed forces. While NATO's official target of two percent of GDP be spent by member countries on defence, Poland currently spends four percent, while aiming for five.

NATO's charter is explicit,that an attack on one of its member-nations represents an attack on all NATO  countries, long considered an effective deterrent against Russian aggression against members of the alliance. General Wieslaw Kukula, however, commander of the country's armed forces believes that NATO's shield is no longer assurance that his cou ntry will be safe from aggression by Moscow.It is his belief that Russia awaits an opening, and that would be a sign that NATO's resolve is weakening.

The Polish military, General Kukula stated, is conducting a careful study of the war in Ukraine, for the purpose of determining what weaknesses exist among Russian forces. It has been noticed how effeciveUkraine's drone attacks have been; instnces where millions of dollars in Russian military equipment were destroyed by drone attacks, costing Ukraine a few thoousand dollars, in comparison. While Poland has not yet become a direct target, Arkadiusz Pulawski points out thathis country has become a major target of pro-Russian propaganda.

The obvious design of the propaganda has been to sow division and fear through messages that Poland is itself planning to exploit the war so it can take possession of parts of Ukraine. As well, that Ukrainian refugees seeking refuge from the war in Poland, are the cause of crime and disorder. Polish intelliogence agencies believe that china has been giving assisance in spreading Russian propaganda online, part of a larger purpose of undermining the United States.

Poland has been obliquely put on notice that it will pay dearly for its assistance to Ukraine. An apparent spy ring that was monitoring military facilities and helping to spread Russian disinformation saw Poland arrest 15 people earlier in the year. None of the information was seen to seriously undermine Poland's resolve recognizing the height of the stakes involved, and its vital role within the new reality that has struck Europe.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, third from right, meets with military officials in Moscow beneath a large map depicting NATO and Russian allied territories this month.AFP - Getty Images

"Our main hostile actors are Russian and Belarus and we treat those two hostile regimes and their propaganda as one conglomerate and they work hand in hand."

"We have narratives that rely on intimidation -- that by helping Ukraine, Poland runs the risk of retaliation by Russia, and sometimes that it may be tactical nuclear strike."

"We are now a key country for NATO's credibility in the region and the strength of the alliance's eastern flank."

Arkadiusz Pulawski, senior Polish government intelligence official