Ukraine Counteroffensive, Russian 'Special Military Operation' Death Throes

"Counteroffensive and defensive actions are taking place in Ukraine. At what stage, I will not say in detail."

"I am in daily contact with our commanders. Everyone is positive. So pass it on to Putin."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 

 

"We can clearly say the offensive has started, as indicated by the Ukrainian army's use of strategic reserves."

"But the Ukrainian troops haven't achieved their stated tasks in a single area of fighting."

Russian President Vladimir Putin 

 

"We are seeing newly Western trained and equipped Ukrainian brigades participating in significant armored assaults on Russian positions. Those brigades with that equipment were explicitly built for this counteroffensive."

"As the offensive has just begun, it's too early to say how it's going to pan out. Ukraine is assaulting heavily fortified Russian positions. It is expected that they would sustain significant casualties."

Dmitri Alperovitch, analyst, Silverado Policy Accelerator, Washington think tank

Ukrainian soldiers firing from an armored fighting vehicle several miles south of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on Saturday. Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

The long-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces in occupied regions of Ukraine has been launched, a critical phase in the conflict purposed to restore Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. Specialized attack units along with regular troops armed with Western weapons, trained in NATO tactics launched strikes on front-line positions in Ukraine's southeast on Wednesday night; the beginning of a significant forward momentum into Russian-occupied territory.

Unauthorized military personnel officers spoke on condition of anonymity discussing battlefield developments. Reports were also made by Russian military bloggers of heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region, long seen along the front line as a likely locale of the new Ukrainian campaign.

Kyiv's forces could aim to sever the "land bridge" between mainland Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula, cutting off crucial Russian supply lines, by cutting south through Zaporizhzhia.

The city of Melitopol where Russia has established the region's occupied capital and Enerhodar where the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located, could also become the focus of an attempted liberation. Spokesman for Ukrainian military units located across much of the eastern and southern front line, Valeriy Shershen, confirmed that "more activity" in the Zaporizhzhia region could be expected, adding he "wouldn't say it's something major".

No single action would mark the start of the counteroffensive, warned Ukrainian officials in recent days repeating an official announcement of the counteroffensive start would not be made, but their president broke the silence and confirmed just that. "Small counteroffensive activities" on a local scale, particularly the fight for Velyka Novo-silka in the Donetsk region east of the Zaporizhzhia region was another active conflict site, said Shershen.

In anticipation of a possible Ukrainian attack, the Russians stepped up their shelling in the Zaporizhzhia region. Over the course of months as the counteroffensive unfolds, a pivotal test of a U.S.-led strategy to prepare Ukrainian forces and train them on the use of the most advanced warfare tactics will demonstrate just how successful the long-range strategy proves to have been. 

"Perhaps, we can now reliably say that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began five-six days ago", wrote Igor Strelkov, former officer of Russia's security service who was heavily involved in Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its later war in the eastern Donbas region. He set himself up to provide analyses of troop movements at various hot spots along the front.

Russian forces have spent months fortifying the Zaporizhzhia region with mines and trenches, representing fierce obstacles in Ukraine's advance. One brigade member taking part in the offensive in the southeast described "continuous heavy fighting. It is very difficult on the field. Our artillery and aviation are working, but the Russians' are working as well. It is difficult for us and for them. The armed forces are advancing. But not as fast as we wanted."

 

Members of Ukrainian Armed Forces are seen during their shooting training with heavy weapons at the areas close to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine on April 20, 2023.

Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

 A breach of the Russian-controlled Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power plant on Tuesday sent water gushing over the banks of the Dnieper River, into dozens of residential communities in both Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territories, just as the counteroffensive is intensifying. The battlefield, of necessity, has been redrawn in that part of the southern front as a result of the vast flooding.

On Thursday, Russian forces shelled a flooded city, forcing a suspension of rescue efforts. Thousands in the region are now homeless, tens of thousands without drinking water or electricity. With no power out of the Kakhovka plant or the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ukraine can anticipate being short on electricity for some time. The ecological and agricultural damage will be incalculable.

"With no power and no water at this huge nuclear power plant, the chance of the meltdown of reactors and spent nuclear fuel starts to become plausible."

"Putin has threatened the West with nuclear weapons since the beginning of this war, but even if this is a hollow threat, the power plant could still be used as an improvised nuclear weapon, with plausible deniability."

"It is uncertain what contamination would ensue or where it would go, but it would be a global humanitarian and environmental disaster."

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commander of U.K. and NATO CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear) forces

Ukrainian soldiers rest in a trench on the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk region, Ukraine, on June 9. (Roman Chop/The Associated Press)