"Speculations and Gossip"

"Putin is orchestrating a purge to capitalize on the coup, which in my intelligence assessment was a false flag operation."

"He is continuing to advance the narrative that he is the one and only strong leader who is able to crush all the traitors, squash the mutiny and save Mother Russia — this is in preparation for his 2024 re-election run."

"He is consolidating power even further, ensuring he is only surrounded by loyalists."

"General Armageddon [Sirovikin] is arrested and Gen. Gerasimov, of the holders of Putin’s three nuclear footballs is missing — a threatening situation."

"Until Ukraine is crushed by Russia and Putin gets to keep Crimea and the provinces he has annexed, no one will sleep safely."

"This is what Putin wants the world to know."

Former U.S. defense intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov attend an expanded meeting of the Russian Defence Ministry Board at the National Defence Control Centre in Moscow, on Dec. 21, 2022. Gerasimov has not been seen in public since mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his rebellion against Russia's military leadership. (MIKHAIL KIREYEV/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

Now that Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is in exile following his brief, inchoate mutiny of last weekend, more sinister drama has entered the scene in Russua. Suddenly several top Russian generals are nowhere to be seen. These are not merely medalled generals, but the elite of the Russian Federation's military establishment. One of the missing, named General 'Armageddon' is known to have been a close contact/colleague of Prigozhin's. 

Reports have surfaced, as yet unconfirmed, that General Sergei Surovikin with his links to Prigozhin has been arrested. He is not alone. Another general was absent from a number of events that embattled Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu accompanied President Vladimir Putin to. The others, who should have been there, were mysteriously absent. Which has, of course, led to speculation some top military officers may be suspected of having colluded with Prigozhin.

Suspicion is enough in the opaque world of Kremlin politics to pass judgement. Those suspected of disloyalty may now be in line for a punishing conclusion to their elite careers in the Russian military. The mutinous Wagner procession that marched along highways leading from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow almost a week ago had gone unchallenged. Where was the Russian military under the command of trusted generals? No army battalion challenged the Wagner convoy, no air assaults on the convoy took place.

The unchallenged march toward Moscow was an event that Vladimir Putin called treason, and a "stab in the back". General Surovikin has not been seen since the rebellion advanced unchallenged, at a time when he posted a video urging that the unfolding event be stopped. And it was stopped, wasn't it, only he wasn't involved in halting it. The Moscow Times and the Financial Times, along with a Russian military blogger reported that Surovikin, commander of the Russian air force, has been arrested.

Former head of the Ekho Moskvy, a prominent independent radio station shuttered by authorities following the February 2022 'special military operation' invasion of Ukraine, claimed Surovikin and his lieutenants are known not to have been in contact with their families for several days. Rybar, another prominent military messaging channel operated by a former press officer with the Defence Ministry, reported that a purge in the ranks was underway. Authorities had examined allegations that some members of the elite military might have supported Prigozhin.

Should an event of the nature of a purge be underway, the military chain of command could be destabilized, trickling down to erode troop morale in this still-early stage of Ukraine's summer of 2023 counteroffensive. Conceivably, Kyiv could grasp an opportunity amidst the chaos in the Russian military chain of command to reclaim more of Ukraine's geography from the Russian occupying invader. 

Both Surovikin and Prigozhin had been involved in Russia's military aerial and ground action in Syria since 2015, dedicated to supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, aiding him in the reclamation of territory following Syria's civil war. Then there is the little detail that while Prigozhin unleashed his expletive-driven insults at Shoigu and chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov before the mutiny of last week when he demanded their ouster, he continued to praise Surovikin.

The New York Times had earlier reported it was thought by U.S. officials that General Surovikin had advance knowledge of the Prigozhin-Wagner mutiny. When Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was questioned with respect to the report, he shrugged it off as "speculations and gossip". Refusing to comment on whether Surovikin had been arrested.

The top Russian military commander in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, left, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. (AP)

 

 

"I Am Hurting For My France"

“On a general level, people tend to think there is no racism in France. And it’s one of the reasons people are so angry, because they feel and experience racism on a daily basis."

"Despite that, they still face institutions, public discourse and media which still say that there is no racism and that the race debate does not belong in France. And that’s the reason people are so angry and so outraged." 

Journalist and racial equality activist Rokhaya Diallo 

 

"We have to go beyond saying that things need to calm down."

"The issue here is how do we make it so that we have a police force that when they see Blacks and Arabs, don't tend to shout at them, use racist terms against them and in some cases, shoot them in the head."

Dominique Sopo, head, campaign group SOS Racisme

 

"The professionals of disorder must go home. [While there’s no need yet to declare a state of emergency — a measure taken to quell weeks of rioting in 2005] the state’s response will be extremely firm."

"[Officers made more than 180 arrests before Thursday and there would] doubtless [be more]."

"[Street violence injured scores of police and damaged nearly100 public buildings -- the number of officers in the streets will increase from 9,000 to 40,000. In the Paris region alone, the number of officers deployed will increase to 5,000]."

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin

The mother of 17-year-old Nahel, seen at left on a truck, gestures during a march on Thursday.  Michel Euler/AP

 

France is  burning, once again. From the banlieues where ghettoes of immigrants from the near east and the Maghreb tend to live in their converted versions of the places where they were born, poverty exists, joblessness, and hopelessness. Every now and again frustration and anger boils over and roving gangs set fire to vehicles until the anger subsides to more manageable levels. Crime festers in the banlieues, gangs proliferate wildly and even when firefighters respond to fires they would be attacked as 'foreigners' daring to enter Muslim enclaves.

 

The brutal and hostile alienation owed, France's critics said, to the racism, marginalization, lack of opportunity, poverty that France's Muslim population lived within. And so the government began investing huge sums into the areas of Muslim majorities, rebuilding infrastructure, including public transit systems to enable the slum dwellers to move about elsewhere, to feel free to travel, to reach destinations other than their crowded, choked enclaves. Young people were accepted into elite schools, encouraged to attend universities.

 

Not much, it seems, has changed. The banlieue-dwellers still feel victimized, still claim they feel the sting of racism, still run about in gangs dealing drugs, challenging one another, and quickly assemble in large protest mobs to loot and to charge the government with discrimination. Night after night of violent demonstrations against police in France, against authority in the country altogether. The outrage this time may be national in scope, however, in the aftermath of a shocking police shooting of a 17-year-old with no police record.

 

The motorcycle officer who shot the boy named as Nael, in Nanterre, has been arrested and charged. Casual video taken at the scene of a traffic stop belies the story given by the 38-year-old officer and a companion officer, that the vehicle the young man was driving erratically seemed to be deliberately heading straight for them, and they feared the safety of the public, while defending themselves. Footage, in fact, that contradicts their story has been widely seen, feeding the public outrage.

According to Pascal Prache, the Nanterre prosecutor, two officers attempted to stop Nael because he looked so young and was driving a sporty Mercedes that had Polish licence plates, in a bus lane. He ran a red light to avoid being stopped and became ensnared in traffic. Both officers involved said they drew their guns to prevent him from fleeing. But the story initially given by police sources that the teen drove at the two officers as they attempted to stop him, has been disproven.

In the video published on Twitter, the officers are shown at the side of the yellow Mercedes AMG. The car had come to standstill in the press of traffic. One officer stood there, his gun pointed at the driver and as the vehicle moved off, the officer fired, shooting the driver in the heart. Control of the vehicle was lost and it crashed, the 17-year-old pronounced dead at the scene. A horror story. According to the victim's family lawyers, just prior to the gunshot the officer was heard to say (in the video) "I'm going to put a bullet in your head". The second officer is heard saying: "Shoot him".

This screengrab from video posted on Twitter shows the moment when police interacted with a 17-year-old teen during a traffic stop in a Paris suburb.  From @Ohana_Fgn/Twitter

There were two passengers in the car with the driver. One of them ran off in a panic and has not been found. The other was arrested and then released without charge. The aftereffect of the  shooting and the public anger could be measured in the reaction that ensued, with youths burning garbage bins, smashing bus stops and attempting to set up roadblocks. Others planned to protest outside local police stations with officers responding by firing tear gas and rubber bullets.

Soon other suburbs of Paris were experiencing rioting. A council building was destroyed when a fire was set in Mantes-la-Jolie. And it was not just banlieue residents who were protesting; expressions of disgust and fury came as well from celebrities and politicians. "I hope that justice worthy of the name will honour the memory of this child", stated The Intouchables film actor Omsar Sy. Adding his voice to that of the captain of France's national football team and star player at Paris Saint-Germaine. "I am hurting for my France", said Kylian Mbappe.

Protesters burn garbage bins and block a street during a protest in Paris on June 29. Fiachra GIBBONS/AFP/Getty Images

 

 

Canada's Arctic Geopolitical and Environmental Interests

Reuters

"[The move back to Ottawa would] allow the team to better co-operate with other government departments and agencies, enhance our capacity to deliver on the department's international Arctic mandate, and strengthen implementation of the International Chapter of the Arctic and Northern Policy Framework."

"We will continue building upon the good relationships formed through the Canadian International Arctic Centre, many of which are with Northern Canadians, while our global mission network will continue to advance Canadian Arctic interests abroad."

"Canada's priorities in the Arctic Council are to maintain a strong focus on Arctic peoples and communities, particularly on sustainable development and environmental protection issues, with our State and Indigenous partners."

"This includes strong support across the Arctic for continued climate change action, and effective and meaningful participation of Indigenous peoples at the Council."

Charlotte MacLeod, spokesperson, Global Affairs Canada

"This decision truly makes no sense. It runs so counter the process announced by the minister not to focus people in Ottawa This was an excellent opportunity for the minister to put words to action and use the Canadian International Arctic Centre in Oslo, Norway as a model."

"[Canada's national interests are] in play [when considering the country's presence in Nordic countries and Arctic multilateral organizations]."

"We should be building that capacity. Part of the problem has been that organizations like the CIAC have been whittled down over the years."

Artur Wilczynski, former Canadian ambassador to Norway

 

"[The centre focuses on Canada's participation in the Arctic Council, but is] equally focused on other multilateral, regional, and bilateral Arctic-related tasks, in collaboration with other similarly interested groups in government, private security, and civil society."

"Another advantage of being based in Norway is the access we have to research institutions and NGOs. [Norway is a] key hub for the international Arctic agenda."

"It's immensely helpful to keep up with current projects and happenings, and to create bilateral connections with Canadian partners in science, technology and academia, and social and cultural work."

Bob Paquin, former CIAC head

Canada's Arctic Marine Atlas

Over the past eight years under this 'post-national', progressive government, Canada's government departments appear to have stagnated, a result of disinterest on the part of its executive office holders and lack of familiarity and direction by the prime minister of the day. The previous, Conservative-led government identified a need for Canada to pay more attention to its Arctic holdings, commissioning a series of Arctic vessels including ice-breakers. The government led by Justin Trudeau has its focus on climate change almost to the exclusion of all else, but for his promotion of equity, diversity, inclusion.

 

Canada's former department of Foreign Affairs, renamed Global Affairs by a prime minister who likes to put his personal stamp on everything to distance any advances or civil measures instituted by his conservative predecessor, has been criticized for floundering, for failing to make a mark internationally, despite Justin Trudeau's famous chirp abroad that "Canada's back!" under his flawless steering.  A steering of the ship of state that led to a diminished quality of administration of the country's value system and culture which the current prime minister claims to be nil.

 

He is attending a meeting of Nordic leaders in Iceland as a special guest where he took to the podium to lecture his peers on the environment. At a time when, partially due to poor forest management, Canadian out-of-control wildfires are sending carbon and particulate matter all over North America and Europe. His appointee as Minister of Global Affairs, Melanie Joly, several weeks back pledged to increase Canada's presence abroad. 

 

More recently she announced to a disbelieving coterie of Arctic experts that she has decided to close Global Affairs' Canadian International Arctic Centre in Oslo, repatriating its chief to Canada, and presumably firing local staff working at the Oslo-based CIAC. It is a decision that seems to fly in the fact of a general agreement and intention to proceed with a major overhaul of the department she leads. Global Affairs Canada's own review notably found that considerably less is spent on foreign affairs, trade and international assistance per capita than many of its global peers, with less diplomatic presence abroad than its G7counterparts.

"Canada's overall presence and ability to exert influence abroad has not kept pace with evolving global realities."

"While advances in technology offer new possibilities for virtual and hybrid global engagement, strengthened presence on the ground is require to report, advocate and represent Canada's strategic interests where it matters most."

"[Global Affairs Canada should ensure the] adequacy of resources dedicated to the work of the Arctic Council."

Global Affairs Canada's report Future of Diplomacy 

The nuclear cruise missile submarine of the Northern Fleet "Oryol" at the permanent base. (Source: Andrey Luzik)

 

A key part of what the CIAC does is the support of Canada's work at the Arctic Council. The centre is one of two divisions carrying out Arctic engagement for Global Affairs. In 2016, GIAC maintained staff in both Washington and Moscow. A transition over the years saw all of CIAC's staff located in Oslo. Now, they're being redirected to Canada. Ironically, during his meeting in Iceland with Nordic prime ministers, Canada's Justin Trudeau insisted on the importance of the Arctic for Canada's geopolitical and environmental interests.

 

Rezonans-N over-the-horizon radar in the Russian Arctic. (Source: Courtesy of Rosoboronexport)

Not to be overlooked is the fact that the Arctic represents a key line of defence for Canada from potential Russian aggression, given the very real fact of Russian President Vladimir Putin's steady-paced increase of his country's presence in the North. Mr. Putin has made no secret of the fact that the natural resources in the Arctic are of great extraction interest to him. Old, Soviet-era military bases in the Russian Arctic have been refurbished in the last few years and are actively in use now as manned military stations.

 

Svalbard’s ground station, SvalSat, downloads time-sensitive data from most of the world’s commercial and scientific satellites, but not from military missions, its operator says. Source: Kongsberg Satellite Services

"Canada is a natural Arctic country. We're in NATO, interested in Arctic science and permafrost. The US is getting interested in the Arctic, China's coming across the Arctic. So many parts of the world are important, but ... the Arctic should be far more central to what we're doing in general, and particularly in foreign and defence policies."

"Are we really taking the Arctic seriously when we close an office in one of the most important Arctic regions with our NATO partners and our Arctic Council partners?"

Tom Axworthy, Arctic expert, chair, Public Policy, Massey College