A Senseless War Pursued by a Barbaric Hegemon

"He [Lloyd Austin, U.S. defence secretary] was very clear that we have a short window of time to help the Ukrainians to prepare for an offensive and that they had some pretty specific needs."

"The Russian land forces are pretty depleted so it's the best indication that they will turn this into an air fight."

"If the Ukrainians are going to survive ... they need to have as many air defence capabilities and as much ammunition ... as possible."

Senior (unidentified) U.S. administration official

 

"What we really have to concentrate on now is Ukraine's ability to defend the air and they'll do that through air defence artillery equipped with the proper ammunition."

"Fighter jets are not and will not be as capable against the Russian air force as an integrated air defence system."

Another (unidentified) U.S. official

Ukrainian servicemen fire a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine February 11, 2023. REUTERS/Yevhenii Zavhorodnii

It now seems assured that a Russian massive air assault on Ukraine is in the works. Western capitals are in possession of intelligence reports indicating that Moscow is completing preparations to dispatch its jets and helicopters into the sky over Ukraine in support of a land offensive that has failed to an astonishing degree. Verbal belligerence and loud threats have simply not been matched with a Russian military that has demonstrated discipline and effectiveness against the defence the Ukrainian military has mounted.

Ukraine's Western and European allies have scrutinized Volodymyr Zelenskyy's pleas and demands for air power, emphasizing that Ukraine must be provided with warplanes that have the capacity to meet the threat of the impending air brigade the Kremlin is prepared to send over Ukraine to completely demolish infrastructure and civilian structures that the relentless air campaign to date has not yet accomplished, to bring Ukraine to its knees.

The mystery is why Vladimir Putin persists, if not out of sheer rage over a failed strategy that has made him appear a failed leader, impotent in the face of Ukrainian courage and defence. What he would inherit would be a wasteland, a destroyed geography with towns and cities, ports and communications, airfields and factories in a state of demolished ruin. Inheriting that destroyed terrain and the remainder of a once-functional state would require immense capital expended in restoration.

But it is clear that Putin's is not an intelligent, much less a reasonable design to stamp his heel on a nation that refuses to conform to his demands as a satellite reborn. If frustration and rage can produce lunacy, Putin is a stone-faced, bloodless lunatic. The kind of border buildup of troops and war machinery that prepared for an invasion a year ago is now once again rehearsed with amassed fixed-wing and rotary aircraft on Ukraine's border.

An acknowledged renewed threat is on t he cusp of breaking loose. Russia's air force has had a significant presence over Ukraine in countless bombing mission, augmented by attack drones and missiles fired from offshore. Long-range missiles, artillery and land-based troops, however was where the emphasis has largely been, to the present. Analysts in the West speculate a fear that Ukraine's air defence system represented a threat to Russian aircraft might explain the relative restraint in air missions.

According to a senior NATO diplomat on the other hand, intelligence assessments speak of Russia's air force being "actually quite preserved" not at all that as suspected, the fleet being in poor condition. "More than 80 percent probably is safe and available. So we are expecting that they're preparing to launch an air campaign and they've been trying out Ukrainian air defences with attacks", explained the diplomat unauthorized to make public statements.

 

An old Soviet-style howitzer sits in readiness outside Bakhmut, Ukraine. (Jean-Francois Benoit/CBC)

 

On Tuesday, 50 Western allies met at NATO headquarters to lay out added pledges of military equipment for Ukraine's defence. Another assistance package later this week is being anticipated as an American announcement; likely to include air defence and ammunition. Warnings of ammunition shortages from Ukrainian and NATO officials has resulted in Western capitals expressing concerns of strained defence supply chains and domestic stockpiles dwindling.

Requests for material such as fighter jets or more expeditious shipments of western battle gear has swung into full action. "What Ukraine tells us that they really need is ammunition and additional air defence capabilities? according to a Western official. Arms producer Rheinmetall is to restart production of ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns to support Kyiv, according to Boris Pistorius, German defence minister.

 

Artillery crew member Denys checks his phone in a house where he and his comrades have been sheltering in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine. 'The Russians send their soldiers to die,' he said, 'and the Bakhmut battle won't be in their schoolbooks.' (Jean-Francois Benoit/CBC)

 

Decommissioned in 2010 the Gepard has proven its value as an effective weapon to shoot down drones and low-flying missiles. Ammunition has been running low, however. "We will quickly start our own production of Gepard ammunition at Rheinmetall. I am very happy we have been able to guarantee the delivery of this important part of air defence", said Minister Pistorius.

American officials concede that the administration is likely to provide Ukraine with more sophisticated air power or at the very least green-light the transfer of F-16s from other powers since President Biden has stated his country does not intend to send F-16s to Ukraine. Poland will certainly step into the breach. Brokered and financed by allied countries, talks of more direct contracts between Kyiv and western defence companies could be included.

Moscow has 300,000 troops in Ukraine while it gears up for its new offensive. At the same time, U.S. officials estimate that roughly 200,000 Russian troops have thus far in the year-long conflict been killed or wounded. Russia stepped up attacks in the Donbas, renewing air and missile attacks on other Ukrainian areas. Fierce fighting around Bakhmut might see a victory for Russia where such events have been few and far between.

 

Valentyna Samoilenko reacts next to the body of her son Dmytro, 34, during his funeral in Irpin, near Kyiv, Ukraine on Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023. Dmytro Samoilenko, a civilian who was a volunteer in the armed forces of Ukraine, was killed in the fighting in Bakhmut area. (Emilio Morenatti/Associated Press)