Putin, Risking Russian Public Political Blowback

"The military are outraged that the blitz on Kyiv has failed."

"People in the army are seeking payback for failures of the past and they want to go further in Ukraine."

Irina Borogan, Russian journalist

"He is probably going to declare ... that we are now at war with the world's Nazis and we need to mass mobilize the Russian people."

U.K. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace

"This smells of further desperation."

"[At this critical moment Putin] doesn't feel he needs his strategic commander in Moscow advising him." 

"There's something quite interesting in that dynamic, it reinforces [the idea of] Putin's isolation."

Former U.K. Major-General Rupert Jones

The Russian offensive in Ukraine has defied expectations of a quick invasion and bringing down the government headed by Kremlin-unfriendly President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, installing a Russian puppet and withdrawing, after formally annexing the Donbas after years of planning to establish a land bridge from the Russian border to the Crimean Peninsula. A businesslike affair; not a war, merely a 'special military operation' -- in quickly to conduct the business at hand, then withdraw with lightning speed.

Except for the awkward reality that this is not what happened, Russian expectations aside, since Ukraine had other ideas. The 'occupation' growing into its third month has stalled that Kremlin blueprint for success. And there is little doubt that the grumbling has met Vladimir Putin's ear but not his attention. The Russian military is impatient, it would appear, agitating for their president to declare an 'all-out war' against Ukraine.

Appalled onlookers can be forgiven for thinking that despite the indifferent nomenclature, all-out war has been just what has been happening in the Russian army's evisceration of Ukraine's towns and villages. Just not in Kyiv, which has stubbornly held out. Just as Mariupol too has not yet been catapulted into Putin's arms, forestalling the Russian victory already declared in name but lacking the deed in total.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, near the Kremlin Wall during the national celebrations of the 'Defender of the Fatherland Day' in Moscow, Russia, on February 23, 2022. (Alexei Nikolsky, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

 

The expectation now, voiced by the British Secretary of Defence is that an announcement is likely imminent of a general mobilization of the Russian population, in view of Russia's massive military losses. Russia celebrates the victory of the Soviet army over Nazi Germany on May 9, and it is on that date that the guess is, a general mobilization will be called. As for that celebration, it is quite amazing how like in operational mode the Russian military of today resembles the German SS of yesterday.

In a peculiar move that could be viewed as a precursor to escalation, General Valery Gerasimov, head of the Russian army, was dispatched to eastern Ukraine. His orders, no doubt, are to mount a successful campaign as an urgent remedy to the disasters that have hitherto befallen the Russian military with a surprising loss of high-echelon leaders from generals to troop commanders, alongside an unexpected loss of mechanized war machinery from tanks to planes to helicopters.

 

A destroyed armored personnel carrier stands in front of a damaged by shelling building in Kharkiv, Ukraine. (AP Photo/Andrew Marienko)

 

All the boasting that Vladimir Putin has indulged in, revealing to the world the great strides in modernizing the Russian military, at its disposal advanced technology in weaponry devised to challenge the most up-to-date ballistic missiles, submarines and warplanes in the possession of the West. Funding has been no object, thanks to the billions Russia has pulled in with its energy stores of gas and oil and a Europe hungry for both; in essence funding this latest military campaign.

Retired military intelligence officer Igor Girkin who led separatist forces in  eastern Ukraine and known for his rabid anti-Ukraine sentiments has lashed out online at Moscow's failures; including the sinking of the Moskva flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet -- to infrastructure within Russia, asking "What else has to happen before the dwarfs in the Kremlin realize they are in an all-out, harsh war and start to act accordingly?"

Followed by retired Russian commando, Alexander Arutyunov, a usually pro-Kremlin blogger who wrote his discontent: "Vladimir Vladimirovich, can you please make up your mind: are we fighting or are we playing around?", questioning why it is that Russia hadn't transformed Ukraine's airfields into "lunar craters". Up to the present, the Kremlin has sought to avoid martial law and mass mobilization to call up reservists and retain conscripts beyond their term of one year.

Inna, 37, shows what is left of her house in Fenevichi, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 2, 2022   Photo by Alexei Furman/Getty Images