Erdogan's Nasty Little War With Kurds

"President Erdogan's style of meeting international challenges is upping the ante -- and it almost always works in causing NATO allies to blink."

"It worked in the eastern Mediterranean and in Syria in the past -- why not try again."

Asli Aydintsbas, senior policy fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations, Istanbul

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has revived an old, outdated, near-defunct concept: a Western habit of overrating Turkey's "geo-political importance." Totally blind to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's anti-Western policy calculus, the Biden administration is pushing Turkey's Islamist strongman into further stealth hostility toward the civilized parts of the world."

Burak Bekdil, Gatestone Institute

"In case of any attack, of course we will resist and fight back."

"The international community now faces an important test: will it effectively rein in Turkey?"

Ciwan Mulia Ibrahim, spokesperson SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces)

The West's appeasement will, unfortunately, only embolden Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and push him further into the Russian orbit, both politically as a covert ally and militarily as a client of critical weapons systems. Pictured: Erdoğan holds a press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 22, 2019 in Sochi, Russia. (Image source: kremlin.ru)

Little surprise that Finland and Sweden have decided it is imperative that they no longer wait to see how things turn out for Ukraine with Russia's invasion. Both have committed to applying for NATO membership and partners in NATO are prepared to welcome them to the alliance with the understanding that in the special circumstances that exist, their applications should be fast-tracked. In view of Vladimir Putin's threats, his aggression and his past appropriation of other nations' sovereign territories the fear that Sweden and Finland have made clear is their own vulnerability to Moscow's decision-making.

Not so fast, however. Turkey has an agenda of its own under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, arguably the most enigmatic and volatile of NATO's 30 members, whose playbook has diverged widely of late from that of NATO. He has stated baldly that it is his intention not to approve the two applications. He has an ax to grind with Sweden over its support for Kurds and he has a plan that risks alienating the most powerful country in NATO and he wants it understand that he is prepared to engineer an exchange.

 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

 

In that he will give the green light to the NATO applications to welcome Finland and Sweden as long as NATO agrees not to interfere in Erdogan's plan to build a buffer that would remove any Kurdish presence in Syria from alongside Turkey's border with Syria. The dilemma is that no application submitted by any nation to join NATO can be accepted without unanimous assent of all NATO members. Of course, should all 30 NATO members, less Turkey, agree to turf Turkey from NATO, the problems of Turkey's intransigence would be solved...

And Turkey's president's plan is the launching of military operations across its border into Syria yet again, but on a firmer, larger scale that would cleanse border villages and farms of their Kurdish inhabitants and rout the presence of Kurdish militias from border proximity. Sweden and Finland have been accused by Turkey of nurturing links to the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) whose ongoing war with Turkey in the interest of forcing the release of Kurdish ancestral land it occupies for a recognized sovereign Kurdistan, has led Erdogan's intent on destroying the PKK.

Since 2015 Turkey has seized hundreds of kilomtres of land, 30 km deep into Syria, its operations targeting the Syrian Kurdish YPG milita, backed by the United States, for its aid in combating the Islamic State Emirate. Turkish troops have increased military operations against PKK fighters in northern Iraq as well. According to Turkey, both groups are linked as terrorist entities; whereas only the PKK is considered a terrorist group by NATO, not the YPG. 

The People's Defence Units (YPG) represent the foundational element of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition hugely depended upon by the United States. For its part the SDF accuses Turkey of efforts planned to "destabilize the region", by its military action threats in northern Syria. In a sinister statement that simply indicates that Turkey is an unsuitable partner within NATO ranks, Erdogan claims that his planned military operation would serve to reveal which countries 'respected'  Turkey's security concerns and which did not.

 

Kurdish protesters take part in a demonstration holding Kurdish flags in Stockholm, Sweden | Frederik Sandberg/AFP via Getty Image