Testing the Waters Around Foot-in-Mouth Gaffes

"[Putin will] move in [on Ukraine, but such an attack would have] disastrous [consequences for Russia]."

"It depends on what it does."

"It's one thing if it's a minor incursion, and then we [in NATO] end up having a fight about what to do and not do." 

"It did sound like that [giving Russia 'permission' for a 'minor incursion'], didn't it ?"

U.S. President Joe Biden

 

"We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and no small nations."

"Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky 

"If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that ... it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our allies."

White House clarification

Vitaly Nevar/TASS

 

"In accordance with a plan for training the Russian armed forces in 2022 a series of naval exercises will be held in January-February in all zones of the fleets’ responsibility under the general guidance of the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov."

"The exercises will encompass seas washing Russia and also World Ocean areas of key importance. There will be some exercises in the Mediterranean and Northern seas and the Sea of Okhotsk, in the Northeastern Atlantic and in the Pacific."

"Participating in the exercise from Russia will be a group of ships from Russia’s Pacific Fleet: the guided missile cruiser Varyag, anti-submarine ship Admiral Tributs, and sea-going fuel tanker Boris Butoma."

"After that the Pacific Fleet’s group of ships will proceed to the Mediterranean to team up with the forces of the Northern and Baltic Fleets for a joint exercise."

Russian Defense Ministry

Next up in Vladimir Putin's none-too-subtle trial rehearsals to see how far he can push before he is shoved back into position. He may, on the other hand, not experience a shove of any note, and this is likely what he is seeking to validate prior to the last, big push. Testing the waters, so to speak. And so he has spoken, advising the world at large, watching and waiting, of a sweeping set of naval exercises where the entirety of the Russian fleet from the Pacific to the Atlantic is to be showcased from a position of strength. What better time than during this tense standoff with the West.

The seas adjacent to Russia and featuring manoeuvres in the Mediterranean, the North Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, of the northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific, all will be involved in this grandly broad display of naval power. On display will be 140 warships and support vessels, 60 planes, 1,000 units of military hardware and roughly10,000 servicemen, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Reflecting Moscow's recent show-and-tell investment in upgrading its advanced-technology war arsenal.

This, alongside the Russian troop buildup on Ukraine's border, augmented by hawkish rhetoric, alerting the West to fears of an oncoming regional war that may surely expand, even as the U.S., the U.K. and other signal members of NATO have recently and firmly expressed no intention of becoming involved directly in a war footing. Increased sanctions should do it, as well as destabilizing Russia's banking system, they claim of a Russia that has managed to overcome previous sanctions..

Undeterred, and perhaps amused by the display of cynicism the ministry showed a Facebook posting of its Pacific Fleet's diesel-electric submarine test-firing a Kalibr cruise missile toward a land-based target from an underwater position in the Sea of Japan. Japan, of course, has its own history with Russia, in the Russo-Japanese war, and their ongoing dispute of the territorial ownership of an island both claim as theirs. What China routinely does, Russia can, too.

Like Kim Jong-un boasting of successful missile strikes in the Sea of Japan, Russia's missile struck a coastal target in the far eastern Khabarovsk region from a range of over 1,000 km. Impressive enough to turn heads with a degree of consternation implicit in the revelation. 

President Zelensky, hauling himself out of what must have been an apoplectic fit of disbelief, summoned the dignity of self-defence to rebuke his would-be benefactor, Joe Biden, for the suggestion NATO might not see fit to react to a "minor incursion", pointing out the obvious, that the comments represented a "green light" inviting Vladimir Putin to proceed with his threatened invasion, restoring Ukraine to Greater Russia.

In this photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, A Russian armored vehicle drives off a railway platform after arrival in Belarus, Wednesday, Jan. 19, 2022. In a move that further beefs up forces near Ukraine, Russia has sent an unspecified number of troops from the country’s far east to its ally Belarus, which shares a border with Ukraine, for major war games next month. The Biden administration is unlikely to answer a further Russian invasion of Ukraine by sending U.S. combat troops. But it could pursue a range of less dramatic yet still risky options, including giving military support to a post-invasion Ukrainian resistance. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)