Moscow's Diplomacy: Withdrawal Ultimatums

"As a result of a massive cyber attack, the websites of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a number of other government agencies are temporarily down."

"Our specialists have already started restoring the work of IT systems, and the cyber police has opened an investigation."

Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko

 

"Ukrainians! All your personal data was uploaded to the public network. All data on the computer is destroyed, it is impossible to restore it."

"All information about you has become public, be afraid and expect the worst. This is for your past, present and future."

Cyber message, posted in Ukrainian, Russian, and Polish

 

"All subjects of cyber security were aware of such possible provocations by the Russian Federation."

"Therefore the response to these incidents is carried out as usual."

Ukrainian security official

A laptop screen displaying a warning message in Ukrainian, Russian and Polish, on the official website of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on January 14, 2022.

REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/Illustration

"As part of its plans, Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion, including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine."

Jen Psaki, White House press secretary

According to the United States, Russia appears to be making preparations for a pretext to enable their response in invading Ukraine. This, should diplomacy fail to achieve the results Moscow is gambling on; presenting ultimatums to both the United States and NATO, to completely withdraw from Greater Russia's near-abroad, its Baltic neighbours, and to deny entry to NATO to any other of its former satellites, including Ukraine.

The massive cyberattack just experienced by Ukraine across its government websites leaving a warning: "be afraid and expect the worse", standing out as an attempt to provoke Ukraine into a retaliatory move that would serve as a need for Russia to protect its interests by invading its former satellite whose territory it regards as traditionally Russian and which it is determined to reclaim.

 

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry building in Kyiv. The country's Foreign Ministry website was one of a number of government sites brought down temporarily in a hacking attack Friday. (Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Press Service/The Associated Press)

 

Kyiv's state security service is certain, given signs of Russian involvement, that the cyberattack had been pre-planned, arising mere hours after diplomacy in security talks were convened on Thursday where no breakthrough agreements resulted between Moscow and Western  allies. Andriy Yernak, President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, spoke of the "life and death" of Ukraine hanging in the balance.

The "false-flag operation" in eastern Ukraine saw Russia positioning operatives in preparation for an impending invasion, an event that Russia continues to deny it has planned. Stating, on the other hand, it may, under certain circumstances take unspecified military action should its demands -- a promise by the NATO alliance among them -- never to admit Kyiv are met.

"We categorically will not accept the appearance of NATO right on our borders, especially so given the current course of the Ukrainian leadership."

"Measures to deploy military hardware, that is obvious. When we take decisions with military hardware we understand what we mean and what we are preparing for".

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

NATO's response was to announce it was prepared to sign a new agreement within days with Kyiv on closer co-operation in cyber defence, including Ukraine being given access to the Western military alliance's system for sharing information on malicious software. Cyber experts from NATO were working with Ukrainian authorities to respond to the attack.

Armoured vehicles and allied military hardware was shown in footage released by RIA news agency, being loaded on to trains in Russia's far east. Representing what Moscow spoke of as an inspection drill to practise long-range deployments. The footage came courtesy of the Russian Defence Ministry. "This is likely cover for the units being moved toward Ukraine", observed Rob Lee, military analyst, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute based in the U.S.

A Ukrainian Military Forces member walks in a trench on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists in the Donetsk region on Tuesday. (Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images)