Taiwan's Dilemma

China regularly breaches Taiwanese airspace, but rarely with such a large number of aircraft

"In fact, the general public seems to believe that Beijing would not take that one extra step to war."

"Although there is undoubtedly a psychological warfare component to this activity, it nevertheless increases the risks of miscommunication and accidents, which could then quickly spiral out of control."

"The increasingly belligerent exercises added to similarly hostile rhetoric emanating from Beijing, also signal that the Chinese leadership is bent on escalation."

"We can't leave the [Chinese Communist Party] guessing, even less encourage it to conclude that it could get away with an assault against Taiwan."

"One moment of inattention, and the outcome could be catastrophic for Taiwan."

J.Michael Cole, Taipei-based, senior fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute

"Canada urges all parties to refrain from actions that undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and to avoid moves that alter the status quo."

"Canada continues to support constructive efforts that will contribute to peace, stability and peaceful dialogue across the Taiwan Strait."

"We are following the situation in the region very closely."

Department of Foreign Affairs, Canada

"We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security and values in the Indo-Pacific region -- and that includes deepening our ties with democratic Taiwan."

U.S. State Department

"What we’ve seen, and what is of real concern to us, is increasingly aggressive actions by the government in Beijing directed at Taiwan, raising tensions in the Straits." 

"All I can tell you is we have a serious commitment to Taiwan being able to defend itself. We have a serious commitment to peace and security in the western Pacific."

"We stand behind those commitments. And in that context, it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change that status quo by force."

U.S.Secretary of State Antony Blinken

A Taiwanese soldier stands in front of a M60A3 tank during a military drill in Hualien, Taiwan, January 30, 2018. Photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

China has been flexing its military muscle in an obvious bid to intimidate Taiwan of late. Preparatory, it is increasingly seen, to moving into position to test Taiwan's defensive forces against a physical incursion by the Chinese military determined to follow Beijing's dictate that reunification must proceed. China's move against Hong Kong, effectively rescinding the agreement it signed with Great Britain at the transfer of the British protectorate back to mainland Chinese authority under a 'one country, two systems' agreement for Hong Kong's semi-autonomous democracy to be safeguarded for a 50 year span despite international condemnation has emboldened the People's Republic to complete its restoration of Chinese rule of its divided geography.

The recent dispatch of 15 Chinese planes entering Taiwanese airspace once again, the entry of a Chinese aircraft carrier carrying out 'routine exercises' close to the sovereign island, delivered a clear message of China's intent. Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu,  hoping to galvanize support from among Taiwan's allies and supporters broadcast a diplomatic 'mayday' message to fellow democracies  that his country is prepared to defend itself "to the very last day", should the worst-case scenario develop.

It may or may not give comfort to the Taiwanese leadership to have the Biden administration reiterate its commitment to Taiwan is "rock solid", but then it only has to look at the same administration's assurances to Israel that the traditional U.S.-Israel stance of allowing "no light" to separate their firm commitment to Israel's security and very existence, to cast doubt on the sincerity of the declaration other than for diplomatic nicety conformation. The U.S. has never signed a binding security guarantee with Taiwan as it has with Japan.

As for Canada, whose Prime Minister never tires of pledging himself to peace, security and justice, there is a pro forma vapid response somewhat lacking in sincerity. Canada clearly treads carefully around Beijing these days. Beyond having crafted a declaration on arbitrary detention signed by 58 countries, deploring Beijing's penchant for putting pressure on countries that displease it mightily by 'unwarranted and illegal' criticism of the People's Republic for among, other issues, its penchant for diplomacy-by-abduction-coersion.

A confrontational attitude expressed by Canada against China by the current government of Justin Trudeau in support of Taiwan's democratic independence as a state separate and apart from that of China is simply not in the books. "One wishes that Ottawa would have the clearness of mind to acknowledge that only one side threatens war, and only one side engages in highly dangerous brinkmanship, and that it is that regime, not both of them, which needs to be singled out and called upon to de-escalate", commented Michael Cole of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

Taipei is sufficiently concerned over Beijing's strategy and a looming confrontation in gear with its unsubtle threats, to engage itself in the conduct of computerized war games, simulating a Chinese invasion. Hospitals in Taiwan are planning for the potential of mass casualty drills. In close to a quarter of a century, regional tensions have never been quite so high, with China-watchers suggesting risk-calculation has been stepped up in Beijing with the neutralizing of Hong Kong.

The "peaceful" process of reunification that Xi Jinping once spoke of belies the actions it has been taking to exchange muscle for soft words of blandishment. The Pentagon now considers it a high probability that Beijing will resort to force before decade's end. Admiral John Aquilino, commander of the U.S.Pacific Fleet, at this nomination hearing last month stated his opinion that "this problem is much closer to us than most think."

Confidence in the U.S. among its Asian allies would be under great scrutiny and pressure, were the U.S. to do nothing should China invade. Taiwan's geographic position also provides shelter to Japan from any military action by China. The U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity" whereby it appears vague whether it might respond militarily in aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack now comes under scrutiny. Analysts in the U.S. feel that China has the necessary firepower it would take to occupy the island of 24 million people.

With a defence budget 25 times greater than that of Taiwan, with six times as many warships and six times the number of planes, the potential to swiftly overtake the island bringing brute force to bear would present no difficulties for China, without outside interference. China must consider follow-up implications however, were the U.S. to enter the fray in support of Taiwan where it would lead allies in blocking sea lanesm cutting Chinese imports and exports off\, and expelling China from the global trading system.

As for the Taiwanese civilian population, it appears they are less concerned of a Chinese move against the island than their leaders are. Xi, they point out, sent personal condolences to the families of the 48 victims of last week's train derailment, which they have taken as a sign hostilities are not pending, rhetoric aside and not Xi ingratiating himself with a population he plans soon to command. The risks of accidental escalation are simmering, but many in Taiwan calculate the timing for Xi is awkward, with much taking his attention for the present away from reunification.

There is the approaching 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in July, the Winter Olympics next February in Beijing, and the 20th party congress, where President Xi will seek approval for a third term. And the fact that U.S. allies most likely to be affected by conflict in the Taiwan Strait, are urging calm. Where Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga is promoting a "free and open Indo-Pacific" on rules-based order, to counterweight China's antagonism.

 

Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sails through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan on its way to the Pacific in a photo released on April 4, 2021. Photo by Handout/Defense Ministry of Japan via Reuters

And, as Mr. Cole of the Macdonald Laurier Institute points out, the need for the international community to unequivocally point out to Beijing the consequences of any untoward action involving a reluctant, battle-ready Taiwan militarily-forced to rejoin mainland China, surrendering its independence involuntarily, with attendant loss of life, to bring Beijing to a rational weighing of the price to pay for rash action.