Politic?

Notes On A Second COVID Wave

"No one in Canada still alive is used to these types of sacrifices or public policy moral quandaries. Things will not be normal until we get a vaccine."
"There's an overwhelming sense internally that people won't take to a second lockdown. One thing is for certain, we need to give the public some freedom or they won't accept even basic limits."
Name-protected Ontario government official

"An issue of concern is, the longer this drags out, the more restrictions are applied, then lifted, then applied, the more people are going to get social distancing fatigue, and we can probably expect to see an increase of non-compliance with social distancing."
"People are resilient and will eventually adapt to new restrictions, but it's important that they have a realistic idea of how long it's going to last. That requires good data to forecast the trajectory of the pandemic and governments willing to level with their citizens."
"That's going to scramble the system. It's going to confuse people [different messages from the federal government and the provinces]. People are going to downplay or dismiss the messages they don't want to hear."
"So people might say, well, we're locked down but people in the other province are out partying. That's going to diminish the credibility of the last message."
Steven Taylor, psychologist, expert, psychology of pandemics, University of British Columbia

Medical staff in protective gear work at a 'drive-thru' testing centre for COVID-19 in Yeungnam University Medical Centre in Daegu, South Korea, on March 3. Because Asian nations experienced the outbreak much earlier, Canada can take lessons from them about preventing a second wave of infections. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters)

"People say that's a very distinct possibility [tackling hotspots as they arise, as opposed to closing down the entire country], it's standard, and we're gonna put out the fires."
"We're not going to close the country, we're going to put out the fires."
"There could be, whether it's an ember or a flame, we're gonna put it out. But we're not closing our country."
U.S.President Donald Trump, Washington

"We know particularly in those areas that are still working to get the spread of the virus under control it is going to be important to increase testing now ... but also make sure that as we move forward through the summer and into the fall, we are ready to act extremely quickly, so that the population at large won't be in situations of having to go back into confinement."
"But that depends on citizens doing their part, and also depends on having that testing capacity."
"We need to continue to do everything we can to prevent the need for any further lockdowns the way we've had up till now."
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Ottawa

A woman is tested at a temporary COVID-19 test clinic in Montreal, on Friday, May 15, 2020. (THE CANADIAN PRESS / Paul Chiasson)

There certainly are differences in attitudes and outcomes respecting the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19 between the two countries. Where Donald Trump hasn't self-isolated, continues to make public appearances, balks at wearing a face mask, and goes out of his way to encourage States of the Union to begin to open their economies and their societies to bring both back to normal in hopes of rescuing their financial situation, along with those of the U.S. He defies both public opinion and scientific recommendations by making use of a malarial drug whose usefulness against COVID is unproven.

And then there is Justin Trudeau, who wears a mask, daily addresses the Canadian public from the steps of his 'cottage', urging caution, and who has shut down Parliament but for virtual sittings, and who has self-isolated for the past two months, preferring to run his minority government like a majority government, issuing new news of new sectors of society and business becoming eligible for public-supported financial assists. Justin Trudeau is operating the country like a private fiefdom, throwing loaned money at every problem due to COVID-19 as a solution. In isolating himself he makes no public appearances in pursuit of his position as prime minister.

The United States has been hit particularly hard in the number of COVID cases being racked up, including a huge death toll, particularly in New York State and City both acutely impacted by COVID. In Canada, with about one-tenth the population of its southern neighbour, both case load and deaths have been much lower per capita population base, but both countries have suffered devastating losses to their economies, suffering high unemployment and have been borrowing heavily to shore up industries in trouble, and people whose livelihoods have vanished.

And though both countries now appear to feel that they've succeeded in 'flattening the curve' of infection, they also acknowledge the possibility that what has thus far occurred may be but an initial flush of the disease -- which until a reliably efficacious and safe vaccine is discovered, produced and mass inoculation taken place -- rebounds of additional waves can be expected with equally devastating effect. Both countries know that to effectively protect their vulnerable populations, testing must be increased to contain their outbreaks.

In Canada and in the United States, each federal government enacts pandemic-reactive legislation, but both the provinces and the states have taken their own separate interpretations of how they will proceed. Since some provinces and states have been impacted more seriously than others, it makes sense that coming out of total lockdown the lesser-impacted will be more aggressive about opening up. Yet there is also the knowledge among authorities that populations are likely to react with resistance against schools, daycares and businesses opening, then closing again with a second viral wave.

Canadian cases

CONFIRMED

83,608

(Today: +1,139)

DEATHS

6,355

(Today: +105)

RECOVERED

43,084

(Today: +477)

1,493,327 tests administered (Today: +19,572)

Retaining physical distancing will continue to present as a problem in opening workplaces, whether offices or production centres where the option of working-from-home is not viable. A diminished number of work stations will have to be addressed on its impact on the workforce and on the economy. And should the situation continue to fester, by next winter it is anticipated that the wearing of face masks may become mandatory everywhere. Aside from which the danger of mental breakdowns with a continuation of uncertainty and isolation measures represents a real danger.

Science, one of the world's top academic journals, published a paper evaluating the outcome of a possible second wave, and governments' possible reactions. The paper recommends thresholds for enacting strict physical distancing measures to be reinstated, should infection numbers reach 35 cases per 10,000 people, a threshold determined by local factors, including area hospital capacity. A study by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at University of Minnesota looks at the variety of forms by which a second wave can manifest.

Where a "fall peak" scenario was examined, of the possibility of a massive, single wave of infections, greater in impact than the initial wave the world has and continues to be occupied with. Where a "slow burn" might still be manageable to contend with -- if difficult to comprehend how that might be possible -- with a series of "peaks and valleys" bringing along three or four additional waves each approximating the size and impact of the first one the world is trying to recover from.