Mystery Unravelled, Back to Basics

"If you talk to experts, this cannot be right. Totally it is wrong, 100 percent. This is something purely technical. It was a disaster, it was a great tragedy ... "
"What is going around is because of some political issues, the tension between Iran and the U.S."
"If the aircraft had been hit with a missile, it would explode in the air. It would not hit the ground, you know."
"So many pilots and engineers were interviewed in Iran. Retired pilots, experts with 30, 35 years of experience, and engineers, and all of them say that this cannot technically happen."
"It was a disaster for the Iranian people as well, and the Iranian community in Canada."
Farhad Parvaresh, Iranian ambassador for international air travel, International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal

Witness accounts, stressed Mr. Parvaresh -- speaking for his government -- and amateur video suggest that Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 that hurtled to the ground close to Tehran on Wednesday morning engulfed in flames, indicated the rapid descent trailing flames, striking the ground in an immense fireball discounted the possibility that an anti-aircraft missile was involved. At the same time, he noted, other passenger jets were leaving and arriving at Tehran's Imam Khomeni airport every ten minutes.

Aside from which the majority of the crash victims were citizens of Iran, so why would, how could Iran be accused of deliberately targeting a civilian passenger plane carrying mostly Iranians, with its missiles? To consider such a scenario was "totally wrong". Reason would have it, addressing such a tragedy with almost any other nation, that this is an unassailable argument.

Vigil, Amirkabir University, Tehran, Saturday. Photograph: AFP via Getty Images

But this is Iran, a country which, like Syria, hardly hesitates to respond to mass street protests with live fire. By that measure, it having been revealed that 1,500 Iranians lost their lives a bare month ago by protesting the regime's virulent agenda, it isn't too far a stretch to imagine it might also sacrifice the lives of an additional 80 Iranians in a plane disaster.

And then, of course, there's the fact that Iran has invited investigating officials from Ukraine and Canada to take part in Iran's own crash investigation. Setting aside reports that the crash site has been prepared for such an investigation with the presence of bulldozers cleaning up a bit of the mess, despite that in such instances, considered a crime scene, everything must be left untouched for investigators to thoroughly examine all possible evidence toward a conclusion.

Iranians shout anti-government slogans outside Amirkabir University on Saturday after a vigil held for the victims of the Ukrainian plane crash. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/via Getty Images

"Time will tell and the world is watching. Over the course of the next days we will see if they are genuine in their interest to have a full and transparent investigation", noted Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, on Friday. The minister also noted that Tehran appeared to be in no great hurry to issue visas to enable the Canadian investigators to enter the country, despite the proffered invitation inviting them to do so. There is reason to begin as soon as possible, given reports from CBS News from the crash scene stating much of the wreckage had been cleared away.

When it was revealed a day ago, first by U.S.President Donald Trump, then Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson, followed by Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau, that all indications are, through confirmation by intelligence and technology that the plane was shot down, an added comment was that it most likely was an inadvertent occurrence, an "accident". And that faintly exculpable dimension verging on the 'innocent of deliberation, in the fog of war' comment must have heartened Tehran.

"We do believe it is likely that that plane was shot down by an Iranian missile."
"When we get the results of that investigation, I am confident that we and the world will take appropriate action in response."
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

"We recommend the U.S. government to attend to the results of the investigations by the probe committee instead of scattering lies and engineering psychological warfare."
Iranian government statement 

"What is obvious for us, and what we can say with certainty, is that no missile hit the plane."
"[If the U.S. and Canada are certain, they should] show their findings to the world."
Ali Abedzadeh, head, National Aviation Department, Iran

"The Iranians may have had a desire that nothing be revealed. [They] acted there [at the crash site] very, very quickly so that everything was hidden."

"What they did and how it all looked when we [Ukrainian investigators] saw it was just awful."

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council  

And so, the Islamic Republic of Iran, counting its curses and its blessings, acknowledged the former and practised the latter by grasping the lifeline of a pale excuse of 'accident' that casual supposition had granted. Grasping that a mea culpa leaning heavily on confusion and chaos given the aggressive actions of the United States leaving Iran will so few options of retaliation and nervous about reprisals over their weak retaliation in the missiles that flew to two U.S. military bases in Syria and Iraq, the regime bit the bullet.

"Hassan Rouhani expressed his condolences to the Ukrainian people and the families of those killed as a result of the crash of the PS752 flight of Ukraine International Airlines. He issued an apology from the Iranian side for the tragedy that claimed 176 lives."
"The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran fully acknowledges that the tragedy was due to the erroneous actions of the military of this state. Official Tehran assured that all involved in the crash will be held accountable. Acknowledging plane shot down is a step in the right direction. I insist on immediately completing identification of the bodies and their return to Ukraine."
"The perpetrators must be held accountable. We look forward to further legal and technical cooperation."
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky

A scapegoat will be named, a functionary who followed orders, who will now be in the crosshairs of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, an expendable sacrifice. World opinion and the demand of accountability coursing toward Tehran from the outraged leaders of civilized nations is one thing. The reaction of Iranians to this act of domestic/international carnage that has victimized Iranians yet again is too much to bear for many who have once again placed themselves in deadly danger, protesting in the streets, demanding the end of the regime.

And the regime is responding as best it knows how. With water cannons. With tear gas canisters. And with live rounds.